4/17/26: The Folly of Opening a Second Front

Already embroiled in his march across Europe since 1938, Adolph Hitler decided to launch Operation Barbarossa on June 22, 1941, sending aircraft, tanks, and some 3.8 million troops eastward into the Soviet Union along a front stretching 1,800 miles from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. In so doing, he not only violated the Molotov-Ribbentrop non-aggression pact of 1939; he also stretched his already limited resources to an unsustainably thin point. Ultimately, it cost him his dreamed-of victory.


Hitler had learned nothing from Napoleon’s disastrous 1812 attempt to conquer Russia. And it is possible that Vladimir Putin is now ignoring Hitler’s 1941 mistake as he threatens — while mired in the fifth year of his stalled war against Ukraine — to attack other European countries that dare to aid their Slavic ally.

And to make matters worse, Dmitry Medvedev had to add his two cents’ worth of vitriol to the mix.

But I’m getting ahead of myself.

It all started with Donald Trump’s loss of interest in Ukraine, when he decided instead to spend his time — and his country’s money — on a takeover of Venezuela, an obscene pass at Greenland, a stab at Cuba, and a little misadventure in Iran. This predictably, and rightly, catapulted Europe into crisis mode, where leaders who have always been able to rely on backing from the U.S. have stood up to the challenge, pulled together, increased their own defenses . . . and jumped in to pick up the slack in Ukraine.

Bravo, Europe!

Europe Stands With Ukraine

What apparently drove Putin over the edge was Germany’s recent announcement of a €4 billion military aid package for Ukraine focusing on air defense and drones, followed by an announcement from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni that they are exploring a joint drone production project.

Since the start of the war, Ukraine — in accordance with the old adage that “necessity is the mother of invention” — has developed state-of-the-art technology for inexpensive drones that are now sought after by other countries. In order to boost production, Ukraine has been seeking co-production agreements with some of its allies — an obvious threat to Russia’s pursuance of its offensive.

Ukrainian Drones

For once not referring to the conflict in Ukraine as a “special military operation,” the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a statement on Telegram on April 15th:

“We consider this decision to be a deliberate step leading to a sharp escalation of the military and political situation on the entire European continent and creeping transformation of these countries into a strategic rear for Ukraine. Instead of strengthening the security of European states, the moves of European leaders are increasingly dragging these countries into the war with Russia.” [Kjeld Neubert, Euractiv, April 16, 2026.]

Listing the names and addresses of 11 Ukrainian manufacturers and 10 European companies, the statement continued:

“The European public should not only clearly understand the underlying causes of the threats to their safety but also know the addresses, as well as the location of ‘Ukrainian’ and ‘joint’ companies producing UAVs.” [Id.]

And, just to be sure there was no misunderstanding, Dmitry Medvedev — the war-mongering Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council — added his bit in a separate social media post, saying that the Foreign Ministry’s statement should be taken “literally,” and that the list represents “potential targets for the Russian armed forces.” [Id.]

Dmitry Medvedev

That’s pretty clear, all right. Imagine going to work each day, knowing that there is a figurative target painted on the roof of your building and a Russian drone with your company’s name on it. Or that you’re the owner of that business, responsible for making a decision on which the lives of your employees might depend.

That, of course, is how Putin wants the targeted companies to think. But realistically, is he prepared — or even able — to prosecute a war on numerous fronts, when it has taken him four years to achieve only about 20 percent of his original goal in Ukraine . . . a goal that was supposed to have been reached in a matter of days or weeks?

Only Vladimir Putin knows for sure, of course. But — unlike Donald Trump and his erotic dreams of wiping out an entire civilization — Putin, while decidedly evil, is intelligent, surrounded by expert military advisers, and at least presumably sane.

On the other hand, like his American alter-ego, he does not react well to setbacks.


He also does nothing without a reason. The listing of the locations of those Ukrainian and European businesses is unusual and worrisome. It may be that what he has in mind is something more along the lines of the type of hybrid warfare in which he has already been engaged throughout Europe: perhaps some sort of lesser, deniable activity, such as sabotaging power plants, water systems, transportation hubs, or communications networks on which those industries rely.

Or it might all be bluff and bluster. Whatever the answer, Europe is on edge as it has not been for decades . . . not since the supposed end of the Cold War. And it is not a good feeling.


Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
4/17/26

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