Just when we think we’ve got all the problems we can handle, along comes Xi Jinping with his vision of a brave new world . . . China style. (Do I hear Aldous Huxley flipping in his grave?)

For the first time since beginning its isolation during the Covid pandemic, China is hosting a gathering of world leaders in Beijing this week. The goals: to pat itself on the back for its role in economic development around the world during the past decade, and to “project its expanding ambitions as an alternative global leader to the United States.” [CNN World, October 15, 2023.]

Attendees are expected to include “leaders, representatives and delegations from more than 140 countries, including in the Middle East and many Global South nations.” [CNN World, October 16, 2023.] Not included on the guest list are leaders from major Western powers. But attending as guest of honor is Vladimir Putin, whose travel opportunities have been radically restricted of late because of the outstanding arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court. But China offers a safe haven for Mr. Putin, who arrived on Tuesday morning (Beijing time).

As stated by Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank in Washington: “Xi’s message is clear — the current, US-led order has failed to bring either peace or prosperity to many developing nations, and a new order is necessary to tackle today’s issues and anticipate tomorrow’s challenges. He wants to be seen as being capable of convening world powers in Beijing . . . [and of delivering] a very clear path forward to discuss reforming global governance.” [CNN World, October 15, 2023.]

This will be the first Xi-Putin meeting since the opening of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, when they “outlined their vision for a new international order no longer dominated by the United States and its democratic allies.” [CNN World, October 16, 2023.] Three weeks later, Russia launched its “special military operation” into Ukraine.

I would bet the farm that, in presenting his plan for bringing “peace” and “governance” to the world, Xi will studiously omit any mention of the words that best describe his method of maintaining those conditions in his own country: “absolute control,” “autocracy,” “dictatorship,” “despotism,” “totalitarianism” . . . take your pick.

*. *. *

Back in the early 1980s, when I worked for an international law firm whose clients did business throughout the world, including both the Soviet Union and “Red” China, I recall one incident that is (in hindsight) reminiscent of a Keystone Kops episode. It was a time when the two countries were arch enemies. On this particular morning, in a partner’s office sat an official from the Soviet Embassy, who had already stayed beyond the expected time. Arriving in the reception room was a group of officials from the Chinese Embassy. How was I to get the Russian out through the reception area without a confrontation? First, I told the partner to keep the Russian occupied for a few more minutes because his “next appointment” had arrived. He understood the implication. Then I had the Chinese delegation ushered into a nearby conference room, drew the blinds for privacy, closed the door, and gave the all-clear to the partner in his office, who then rather hurriedly escorted the Russian out and onto an elevator. It was a close call, but it worked; and I felt I had single-handedly avoided World War III. A slight exaggeration, of course, but I was a nervous wreck and that’s how it felt to me. Such was the USSR-China relationship in those days.

So things have clearly reversed course since then . . . several times, in fact. First they’re friends, then they’re enemies, then they’re “frenemies,” then who knows what’s next? Right now they’re best buddies — too close for comfort, in my view. Does it make me nervous? Judge for yourself:

After all, we are looking at the world’s two leading autocratic countries — both nuclear powers who regularly threaten retaliation against anyone who opposes them — now talking about a “new world order.” Hell, yes, I’m nervous. Aren’t you?

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
10/17/23

Not surprisingly, it took no time at all for the Israel-Gaza war to overtake the ongoing disaster in Ukraine as the lead news item. The Middle East conflict is hugely important in countless ways, not least because of the unimaginable brutality of Hamas’ attack and the sickening slaughter of more than 1,300 innocent civilians enjoying a weekend holiday festival. Such a monstrosity deserves headlines. And the seriousness of the international implications of any Middle East conflict are undeniable. In a world rife with recent calamities, this one surely has the potential to create the most far-reaching consequences.

But Ukraine deserves no less. In the 19 months since Russia’s unprovoked attack on February 24, 2022, nearly 10,000 Ukrainian deaths have been verified, and at least 17,000 more are reported wounded. Not to mention the millions — mostly women, children, and elderly — who have been displaced and continue to suffer the ravages of war. The world has rallied to assist Ukraine in every way possible; but the future is unclear, for two main reasons.

Reason No. 1: First, of course, is that selfsame Middle East problem. Israel needs help now, and the free world has risen up to offer it. It has become clear that Hamas’ home territory, Gaza, receives weaponry and other assistance directly from Iran. Iran, in turn, freely exchanges military hardware and technology with Russia. The stakes are astronomical, and Ukraine can no longer count on the world’s undivided attention.

Reason No. 2: No one anticipated that Russia’s war against Ukraine would last as long as it has. Russia in particular expected that they would swoop in, be welcomed with open arms, and claim Ukraine as its very own. Well, surprise! It turned out that that wasn’t what the people of Ukraine wanted; they prefer to remain a sovereign nation, not a proxy of Putin’s (or anyone’s) Russia. Most of the free world jumped onto Ukraine’s wagon, offered every type of assistance — military, technological, humanitarian, and shelter for its millions of refugees. And we thought that would be sufficient to bring about the quick defeat of Russia’s poorly equipped and poorly trained military. But it’s taking too long. And Ukraine’s friends are growing weary, and running low on money, weaponry, tanks, missiles, drones, and — in some cases — patience.

*. *. *

The common denominator in these two wars is — and always has been — Vladimir Putin. He wants this war with Israel to drag on in order to draw the attention, and assistance, away from Ukraine, where he has been fighting a losing battle for the past 19 months. By doing so, and by quietly currying favor with several NATO-member Eastern European neighbors of Ukraine, he feels certain he can turn the tide, defeat Ukraine, and “win back” territory that he feels rightfully belongs to Russia. And he may succeed . . . if we let him.

Clearly, the future of Ukraine will have as great an impact on the rest of the free world as will the future of Israel. While we think of Israel as being embattled by its Arab neighbors, we tend to overlook the behind-the-scenes sponsor of many of those Arab countries: Russia. The only difference is that Putin invaded Ukraine directly; in Israel, he can sit back and watch his proxies do the dirty work.

To say that this is not an easy time for the countries of NATO and the rest of the free world would be a gross understatement. But our futures, and our very lives, depend upon our sticking together and fighting the aggressors, now on two fronts. We’ve done it before, and we can — and must — do it again. Because the alternative is too terrible to contemplate.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
10/16/23

Over the past weeks and months, I’ve raised several questions about, or speculated on the futures of, various individuals in difficult or unusual situations. A few of these remain unanswered, and I think they’re important enough to bring up again so that they don’t get lost in history’s dead files. Let’s start with . . .

The Wagner Group. Remember them, and their former leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin? How could we forget the “Where’s Yevgeny” series of blog chapters? We finally did get the answer to the mystery surrounding his whereabouts when he fell to earth and was killed in a mysterious, yet-unsolved plane crash. He reportedly lies buried in a grave near his home town. But what of the thousands of men who had devoted their lives to his cause? Where are all of those loyal mercenaries who had signed up to invade, and maim, and kill on his orders just for the hell of it . . . or for the money? No one seems to be talking about them now, or about the young man — Dmitry Sytii — who had offered to assume the leadership of their Africa branch. Where are Dmitry and his merry men today? I’d really like to know, because not knowing makes me uneasy.

Admiral Viktor Sokolov. Once the commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, Sokolov had the misfortune of being in their headquarters in Sevastopol, Crimea, when a Ukrainian missile found its target and destroyed the building. There were reportedly 34 senior officers killed in that attack, but no one seemed to know whether Admiral Sokolov was among them — or if they knew, they weren’t saying. But a couple of days later, he made a cameo appearance in a video of a meeting of Russian brass, looking oddly wooden, eyes closed behind his glasses, uniform shirt open at the neck and with no tie . . . and propped up against some sort of pillow. A few days later, a still photo of him was also released. And after that . . . nothing. So, once again, is the Admiral dead or alive? Were those pictures real or fake? Anyone? Still waiting . . .

The fattest bear in Alaska. This is one I can actually answer. The winner of this year’s Fat Bear Contest is . . . Grazer. She’s a mama bear, and apparently a champion salmon fisherman . . . fisherwoman? . . . fisherbear? . . . whatever. It’s said she even chases the slippery ones who think they’ve gotten away. Good for you, Grazer. Have a wonderful, peaceful sleep in your winter hideaway, living off your accumulated avoirdupois. We’ll look for you in the spring.

The Three Prisoners. Technically, we do know where they are. Their names are Alexei Navalny, Vladimir Kara-Murza, and Evan Gershkovich — three brave men whose only crime was telling the truth. Navalny and Kara-Murza, two outspoken critics of Vladimir Putin’s totalitarian regime, are serving long sentences in some Russian hellhole prison camps on spurious charges, being denied medical care, and looking thinner and closer to death on each of the rare occasions that they are allowed a visitor. Sadly, these two Russian citizens are at the mercy of the Russian “justice” system; but at the very least, we need to keep attention focused on them as their families, friends and legal representatives work to obtain real justice for them.

The third prisoner, Evan Gershkovich, is an American reporter for the Wall Street Journal who, for some unknown reason, has been falsely charged with espionage. He has been in Moscow’s notorious Lefortovo prison since his arrest in March of this year. His trial has been postponed at least once, and is now set for the end of November. He is allowed to write letters to his family; his sister, in a recent NPR interview, said he seems to be holding up well. I hope that’s true. Efforts are being made to obtain his release. It’s almost too bad we can’t resort to Russian methods of simply arresting one of their people on trumped-up charges just to have someone to swap. But we don’t do that.

The Fourth Man. Everyone seems to forget about Paul Whelan — a U.S., Canadian, British and Irish citizen — who has been imprisoned in Russia since December 2018, also on denied charges of espionage. Consistently passed over by the Russians when there have been prisoner exchanges with the U.S., his family continues to fight for his release, thus far without success. He did appear very briefly in a recent propaganda video, looking strong and healthy. But why do they continue to hold him when others have been swapped?

Laverna. Surely you remember Laverna. She’s the surfboard-snatching otter in Monterey Bay who is wanted by the local authorities, presumably for petty theft. If caught, the penalty would be relocation to another, possibly less ideal, part of the California coastal waters. I sometimes dream about Laverna at night, when I see her being towed off behind a Coast Guard cutter, crying “Help me! Help me!” as boisterous surfers take over her ancestral home, laughing loudly, scattering food wrappers and styrofoam cups everywhere, and polluting the beautiful blue Pacific waters. And I wake up calling for Laverna and all her relatives who are being displaced by uncaring humans. “Laverna! Where are you, sweet girl?”

UPDATE: As of September 6th of this year, Laverna was reportedly still at large. You go, girl! “Go, ‘verna! Go, ‘verna! Go, ‘verna!”

*. *. *

And finally . . .

Who shot J.R.? Oh . . . I’m sorry. That was in 1980, and we already know the answer. Besides which, anyone under the age of 50 has never heard of J.R., and couldn’t care less. Forget it. It was just a TV show called “Dallas,” and a nighttime soap opera at that.

But if anyone has heard anything about the rest of these folks, I’d love to know. In the meantime, I’ll be searching the media for clues.

TTFN,
Brendochka
10/15/23

On October 4th, I wrote about the grim outlook for Slovakia if its upcoming election were to give power to the Moscow-friendly “Social Democracy” party headed by one Robert Fico. Unfortunately, the Social Democrats did win the largest share of the vote, though not enough for a majority in Parliament. Fico is now trying to form a coalition government so that he may once more occupy the office of Prime Minister. If he succeeds, it’s bad news for freedom-loving Slovakia.

Toward the end of that piece, I wrote, with an unsuspected prescience: “Then there is Poland, whose government has strayed so far from the heady days of Lech Walesa as to be virtually unrecognizable. Despite its full support of Ukraine until now, its governing Law and Justice party openly opposes ‘liberal democracy,’ and is leaning more toward the current Hungarian model. What the future holds for Poland is anyone’s guess.”

From a more recent reporting, it appears that Poland’s future has already arrived, and is no longer a matter of guesswork. CNN’s Rob Picheta interviewed Warsaw residents about the effect the political changes have had on their families and their usual dinner table conversations, which have become increasingly fractious. He wrote about one family:

“But when the generations meet these days, the conversation turns bitter, animated, emotional. And it doesn’t take long. ‘We always end up talking about politics,’ Karolina says with an exaggerated weariness. ‘Mum is ready to go within seconds.’ ‘She provokes us,’ adds Patrycja dryly . . . ‘She wants to convert us,’ says Karolina. It can get loud, and feelings can be hurt.”

. . .

The article continues: “Poland is splitting in two. An increasingly toxic politics has polluted kitchens and dining rooms in every region of the country. Poles seem to live in separate realities, their worldviews and anxieties determined by where they get their news.

”And a vicious election campaign, which may conclude on Sunday without a definitive result, has hardened public discourse to the point of political warfare. The government’s sharp illiberal turn on civil rights for women, LGBTQ+ people and minorities, and a drastic overhaul of the judiciary and public media that brought both under increased state control, have appalled Western nations that once looked on Poland as the model student of the free market democracies which emerged from the Soviet bloc.

”But they have delighted conservative Poles who stringently oppose the adoption of what they see as Western European social and cultural values, which PiS [the Law and Justice party] describe as a threat to the country’s deep-rooted Catholic heritage.” [Rob Picheta, CNN, October 11, 2023.]

*. *. *

The PiS party has been based on a platform emphasizing national security, as well as a generous social welfare program for parents and pensioners. But it has also taken greater control of the judiciary, public media, and cultural entities. According to the CNN report, “If you ask a Pole their view on the government these days, there’s rarely much ambiguity; they’re either with them, or against them.”

Clearly, Poland has been polarized . . . politically, at least.

And so it starts, in every single country that begins to lean ideologically toward Russia. Apparently, thirty years have been long enough to have erased the memories of the older generations as to what life was like under Communism; and the young adults have never known that life at all and thus have no frame of reference. So is it all destined to cycle around again, once more dividing — not just Poland, but the entire world — into “us” and “them”? And is there something that can be done to stop it . . . preferably before “us” becomes part of “them”?

Just sayin’ .. . .

Brendochka
10/14/23

Russia is, and always has been, a one-man show. It’s ruled from the top down, with the guy at the peak of the pyramid giving the orders, playing the starring role, and slinging the bullshit to try to convince the world — including his own people — that black is white and vice-versa. That’s quite a job.

And seldom has it been more so than it is now, with Vladimir Putin writing the script and pulling the strings of his all-puppet cast. Every once in a while, he gets lucky and something happens somewhere in the world in which he played absolutely no part — allegedly — but which he can use to his advantage simply by twisting the facts a bit. Like Hamas’ invasion of Israel: a brutal, deadly war in which only one person in the entire world can find any good: Vladimir Putin. Because he can once again blame the United States. And because it may help him defeat Ukraine.

How so? According to the Washington-based think tank, The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), “The Kremlin is already and will likely continue to exploit the Hamas attacks in Israel to advance several information operations intended to reduce US and Western support and attention to Ukraine.” [Business Insider, October 8, 2023.] The ISW report further states that, after Hamas’ attacks on October 7th, “the Kremlin amplified information campaigns that accused the West of ignoring Middle East conflicts to support Ukraine.” The Kremlin also predicts that resources from the West would now be devoted to the Middle East (presumably meaning Israel) rather than to Ukraine.

Not surprisingly, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, has also added fuel to the fire by posting similar messages on X (we all know what that was formerly called), claiming that “instead of actively working at Palestinian-Israeli settlement,” the U.S. and its allies are once again trying to “incite conflicts all over the planet.” The ISW commented: “These Kremlin narratives target Western audiences to drive a wedge in military support for Ukraine, seek to demoralize Ukrainian society by claiming Ukraine will lose international support, and intend to reassure Russian domestic audiences that the international society will ignore Ukraine’s war effort.”

It doesn’t help matters that the U.S.Congress has, at least temporarily, sidelined Ukraine by passing a stopgap funding measure omitting aid to Ukraine, while it continues to haggle over a final budget for this fiscal year. Putin the Propagandist immediately jumped on that bit of news to predict that, if financial assistance to Ukraine from the West is cut off, Ukraine will be able to “live for only a week.” [Business Insider, October 8, 2023.]

I certainly can’t foretell the accuracy of Putin’s predictions, but I fear he may not be totally off the mark. If we, and the rest of the West, are forced to spread ourselves too thin in offering assistance to both of our allies, Ukraine and Israel, the result could be disastrous for either or both of them.

*. *. *

Taking into account what the world does know about Putin’s devious methods, how can we even be certain that he isn’t at least partially complicit in Hamas’ recent actions? Consider the well-known symbiotic relationship between Russia and Iran in the form of an exchange of weaponry (Iran to Russia) for technology and training (Russia to Iran). Add to that the supportive relationship between Iran and Hamas, and the current investigation by Western intelligence into the possibility of Iran’s having provided resources to Hamas prior to its invasion of Israel, and . . . Do you see where this is leading? Could Putin’s somber prediction of Ukraine’s demise thus become a self-fulfilling prophecy?

And now, the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, has put forth a proposal that Russia act as mediator between Israel and Hamas, based on Russia’s good relationship with both Israel and Gaza (and, presumably, its own superior negotiating skills). According to Peskov, Russia intends “to keep making efforts and play our role in terms of providing assistance to seek ways to a settlement.” Right. The dictator who is mercilessly pursuing his own massacre in Ukraine now professes to be able to settle a centuries-old vendetta in the Middle East by means of . . . what? . . . superior intellect? Threatening to nuke both sides? Or perhaps just charming them into submission?

Seriously, wouldn’t allowing him to step into that role be sort of like sending the fox to settle an argument in the henhouse?

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
10/13/23

It’s October. The summer heat has finally lifted, and the first crisp nights have arrived. We have two big, beautiful potted mum plants by the front stoop, and I’m thinking about a nice steaming bowl of soup for dinner. I turn on the TV to catch the news, and I see . . . a Hallmark Christmas movie??!!! Holy crap!!! How on earth . . . ???

Well, sit down and I’ll tell you how it happened. It’s the merchants. First they came up with “Christmas in July” — a clever way of getting rid of last year’s unsold inventory to make room for the newer, brighter, shinier (and more expensive) gifts that the oh-so-clever “early shoppers” will not be able to resist buying even though they thought they’d gotten a jump on their shopping back in July but who can resist these new beauties, right? Whew!

Then August slips by and it’s back-to-school time. But wait . . . what’s that? Alongside all the lovely fall and winter clothes and the school supplies, do I see . . . yes, I do . . . it’s the Christmas decorations. Trees dripping with colored balls and silver garlands, jolly plastic Santas scaring the crap out of you with a booming “Ho-ho-ho” as you walk by, and Mel Torme singing about roasting chestnuts when the temperature outside is still 80-something in the shade. Are they freakin’ kidding?!! It’s September, for pity’s sake!

So you wonder if you’re losing it and maybe you actually slept through October and November. But don’t worry; it’s not you. It’s those damned merchandisers again. They know that if you start shopping early, you’re not going to stop even when you’ve bought something for everyone including all the people at work and that great-uncle you can’t stand but who always shows up for the Christmas Eve potluck. No, they’re going to save their most original, most temptingly beautiful stuff to put on display in December, and you’re going to say “what the hell, it’s Christmas, I’ll just buy everyone a little something extra” because what you’re seeing now is so much better than what you bought back in July and September. Right? Right? Come on . . . you know I’m right!

And before you know it, you’ve got Christmas burn-out, and you’re sick to death of the Chipmunks chirping “Please, Santa, don’t be late,” and the repeats of all those Christmas movies that are indistinguishable from one another, and the house is crammed full of extra gifts and wrapping paper and the decorations you couldn’t resist buying even though you already have boxes of them in the attic. And you wish it were January and it would all just disappear for another . . . what? . . . seven months until next Christmas in July. Or forever.

*. *. *

I don’t know about you, but I want to bring back the days when time passed more slowly, and half the fun of the holidays was the long period of anticipation. When the first smell of crisp autumn air meant the leaves would be changing colors. And Halloween was a big deal, and you spent weeks finding just the right costumes, and decorating the house with pumpkins and potted chrysanthemums and skeletons and fake cobwebs, and having pumpkin-carving contests, and trick-or-treating, and making pumpkin bread and hot apple cider with a cinnamon stick standing up in the mug.

And then thinking Thanksgiving would never come, while you ordered the biggest turkey from that farm out in the country, and planned a menu with everything from sweet potato casserole with marshmallows to your grandmother’s special dressing (or stuffing, depending on the part of the country you came from), and both apple and pumpkin pies, and green beans because nobody else likes Brussels sprouts, and homemade cranberry sauce. And invited everyone you could think of, including anyone who didn’t have any family nearby. And finally the day came, and you stuffed yourself beyond belief and vowed you would never eat again, or at least until the football game started and someone brought out the nachos and beer.

And on that Friday, the stores were finally decorated and you started your Christmas shopping, and everyone was in the holiday mood and rushing from store to store and wishing each other a merry Christmas and meaning it, and you waited for the first snowfall. And the month of December was crammed with all of the hustle and bustle and music and wrapping and cookie baking and parties you’d waited for all year. And standing in line for the kids to sit on Santa’s lap and recite their impossibly long wish-lists. And Christmas Eve when you watched “It’s a Wonderful Life” for the hundredth time and put out the cookies and milk for Santa, and Christmas morning when everyone rushed to see if he had come, and exclaimed over their gifts and the floor was littered with torn paper and ribbon, and the the dog got a new bone and the cat found her favorite box to curl up in. And it wasn’t a drag at all; it was special, and happy, and magical.

Why did we ever let all of that slip away from us, just because someone decided it was better for business? That’s nothing short of criminal, and I, for one, want it back. Maybe I’ll just go out tomorrow and buy some more chrysanthemums and pumpkins and sniff the air for the first sign of fall, and see if I can reclaim the magic.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
10/12/23

For once, there is good news on the Eastern Front. The vote was held yesterday by the U.N. Human Rights Council to fill those two available seats for Eastern Europe. And, as reported by AP News, the vote was: Bulgaria – 160; Albania – 123; Russia – 83.

The country that was suspended from the very same Council last year because of its unjustified invasion of Ukraine; the country whose president is unable to travel outside Russia because of the outstanding arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court by reason of his forced deportation of Ukrainian children; the country that still felt it had “a right” to regain its seat on that Council — that country has been told in no uncertain terms that it cannot simply stamp its foot and insist that its punishment is unfair. That country may see fit to act like a petulant child . . . but for once, Mama is standing firm.

There is still concern, of course, that 83 countries did vote in Russia’s favor. And since the ballot is secret, there is no way of knowing which countries they were. But that is not really surprising; Russia does still have allies scattered throughout Asia, Africa and Latin America. What matters in the end is that they were vastly outnumbered.

So take your defeat like a man, Vladimir Vladimirovich. The free world has spoken.

Brendochka
10/11/23

Please excuse me while I try to control my laughter. It really isn’t a funny situation, but a headline I came across today is so ludicrous, so preposterous, so completely outlandish . . . well, either I had to laugh, or I might otherwise have punched a hole in the wall. Judge for yourselves:

“Russia says it deserves a seat on the UN Human Rights Council. It may have a shot.” [Richard Roth, CNN, October 10, 2023.]

WHAT WAS THAT??!!!

Okay, first part . . . hilarious in its audacity, but not entirely surprising, coming from Russia. Second part . . . beyond infuriating! I mean, come on! “Russia” and “Human Rights” in the same sentence, without the addition of “when pigs fly”? Instead, it says they “may have a shot”??!!! How is that even possible?

Well, in Vladimir Putin’s upside-down, through-the-looking-glass world, I suppose anything is possible, as long as it benefits him.

And seriously, this is actually being voted on in the U.N. today (Tuesday, October 10th) by the 47 members of the Human Rights Council (HRC), as three U.N. member countries — Russia, Albania and Bulgaria — vie for the two seats presently open for the Eastern European bloc. One of the three — Russia — was formerly a member of the HRC, but was suspended last year as a result of its invasion of Ukraine. And its President, Vladimir Putin, is currently confined within Russia’s borders because of the warrant issued by the International Criminal Court for his arrest over the deportations of Ukrainian children. So it should be a no-brainer, right? Two open seats, two countries that haven’t been suspended . . .

But not necessarily. Because Russia — stuck with a “special military operation” that it originally believed would be successfully concluded within a matter of days when the Ukrainian people would welcome its Russian “saviors” with open arms — is now finding ways to use this dragged-out war to its advantage. In short, Vladimir Putin is counting on the world’s becoming weary of the unexpected, ongoing cost of defending and aiding Ukraine, and is simply waiting for the “forgive-and-forget” syndrome to take hold. Russians have always been known for, among other things, their patience. “Wait long enough, and you’ll have a good crop.” “Wait long enough, and you’ll get a car.”

“Wait long enough, and you’ll no longer be a pariah.”

And that patience may be paying off. The HRC’s ballots are secret, so the members are free to vote as they choose, without fear of disapproval. And Russia still has friends on the Council: China, Cuba, North Korea, and a number of African, Middle Eastern, and Latin American countries. There are also those nations that rely on Russia for grain, oil, and natural gas. So a win for Russia would also be a win for themselves. How will they vote? I don’t know . . . but it’s a selfish world. *

* NOTE: As of 11:30 p.m. (Eastern) on October 10th, the U.N. website shows nothing about a Human Rights Council vote, or even a meeting. Like the Russians, then, we wait. Maybe tomorrow . . .

*. *. *

But it’s not just Russia we should be concerned about. The CNN report quoted Human Rights Watch UN Director Louis Charbonneau as follows:

“Every day Russia and China remind us by committing abuses on a massive scale that they should not be members of the UN Human Rights Council.” He also stated that their records — as well as those of Cuba and Burundi — are “abysmal.” And yet all of those countries are vying for seats on the Council, or for reelection.

It’s hard to believe that we’re talking about the venerable United Nations: the organization on which the world has depended since 1945 to maintain some semblance of order and peace, and to protect the human rights — there’s that term again — of its eight billion men, women and children.

As you can imagine, I’m not laughing now.

Brendochka
10/11/23

On October 4th, I wrote about the recent election in Slovakia, and the unsettling political prospects for the country if the leftist Robert Fico is able to pull together a coalition party to lead the Parliament . . . the prospects, not only for Slovakia, but also for neighboring Ukraine, as well as the already disturbing political situations in the former Soviet Bloc countries of Hungary and Poland. I haven’t slept well since I began writing that piece.

And apparently, my concern has been similarly felt by a reader in Slovakia’s former “Siamese twin,” the Czech Republic. (Please note that I can’t bring myself to call it by its other name, Czechia, because of the similarity in pronunciation to Chechnya, a Russian republic in the Caucasus Mountains region headed by a brutal warlord, Ramzan Kadyrov. Any other alleged similarity between the two is completely ridiculous.)

Anyway, that reader is from Prague: the beautiful city in which I spent an idyllic three months in the perfect summer of 1991. He was kind enough to comment on my post, but with information that I found truly disturbing:

“The Czech Republic is heading down the same path to hell. It was just a coincidence that the last elections turned out well. In two years, it won’t happen again, and the Czech Republic, led by the Slovak StB agent Babis, will follow the surrounding countries.”

He was referring, pessimistically, to Andrej Babis, a man with a fascinating — well, that’s one word for it — past.

Anyone who may have been following my blog from its early days may also recall that I devoted two long chapters (Nos. 11 and 12, dated 2/3/23 and 3/2/23) to “Golden Prague” – Parts I and II. That was Czechoslovakia as I fondly remember it, and as I expected it would still be now, some 32 years later. But if my reader from Prague is correct, there may be dark clouds on the Czech Republic’s political horizon. I’m not sure of the basis for his gloomy forecast as to Mr. Babis’ political future, but I did a little research into his background. (You didn’t expect anything less, did you?)

Now 69 years old, Mr. Babis was born in Bratislava, the current capital of Slovakia. However, until 1992, it was all part of the larger nation of Czechoslovakia, and so his nationality is Czech. Thus, he is entitled to hold office in the present Czech Republic — which he has already done. From 2014-17, he served as Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister; and from 2017-21, he was the Czech Prime Minister, appointed by then President Milos Zeman.

Prior to his government service, Babis had amassed a fortune (currently estimated at $3.7 Billion) as the owner of Agrofest, a huge holding company and one of the largest businesses in Slovakia. While in office, he was accused of being part of an informal power alliance with President Zeman and the Communist Party, perhaps because of his earlier history. Babis joined the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia in 1980. During the ‘80s, he is said to have been an agent of the StB: the Czechoslovak Secret State Security Service. He denies having knowingly been an StB agent, though it’s difficult to imagine how anyone could possibly be that unaware and still function. In any event, his legal challenges on that subject were unsuccessful. He was also said to have been “in contact with” the Soviet KGB, which, as an StB agent, would not have been unusual.

During the years of Communist rule in the Eastern European countries that had been forcibly drawn into the Soviet Bloc, only a small minority of citizens became members of the Communist Party. These were mostly the individuals who held high party offices and enjoyed special privileges such as better housing and access to Western consumer goods. As a party member and an StB agent, Babis certainly would have fit this profile.

So it is likely on the basis of all of this information, and probably more, that my reader has become so concerned about Babis’ again running for high office in the Czech Republic . . . and understandably so. Another left-leaning Prime Minister in the Central/Eastern European region is more than a little worrisome; but much would also depend on whether there is a more moderate candidate who could defeat him. My reader would obviously know more about that than I do.

Caution is always warranted, of course, and Babis’ political moves need to be watched. And in the meantime, we also need to keep a close eye on those surrounding countries. The bad stuff in life seems to have a way of spreading; and if Babis, or someone like him, should win the office in the next election, the door to Prague would be wide open.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
10/10/23

It is Sunday, October 8th as I write this, and the day is barely half over. So there is plenty of time for even more noteworthy events to unfold around the world before I put this chapter out into the universe after midnight . . . though I sincerely hope things will be quiet. The early news is still focused primarily on two major disasters: the earthquake in Afghanistan, and the new war in Israel. Once again, let’s start with a look at what Ma Nature has wrought.

I think we can all agree that Afghanistan — one of the poorest countries in the world, with an estimated 85% of its people living at or below the poverty level — has suffered more than its share of catastrophes, just within the last half century. From the invasion and occupation by the Soviet Union from December 1979 to February 1989; to the rule by the Mujahideen from 1989 until 1996, during which two civil wars erupted; to the takeover by the Taliban from 1996 to late 2001 — life in Afghanistan could easily be described as a living hell.

Then an event occurred that will forever be known to the world simply as “9-11”: the attack on the United States by the terrorist Al-Qaeda organization led by Osama bin Laden. And when bin Laden took refuge in Afghanistan under the protection of the Taliban, we — the United States — went after him. We remained in Afghanistan for 20 long years, chasing the Taliban into the hills, sending bin Laden to meet his Maker, and finally acting as peacekeepers. We brought home the last of our troops in August of 2021. And we’ve been castigated ever since — by some, for staying too long; and by others, for leaving too soon. It’s a hot-button political issue that has not been resolved by the experts, and certainly would not be resolved by my opinions today.

But we all know that, when we did finally leave, the Taliban wasted no time in swooping back in. They quickly regained control of the Afghan government, and they wasted no further time in breaking every single promise they had made to the people of Afghanistan and to the world — promises of reform, and of being a “kinder, gentler” Taliban — and instead they have brought the country from a state of disrepair to one of total, unremitting despair.

Now, add to that the misery caused by the frequent earthquakes and other natural calamities that befall these poor, downtrodden people, and you cannot help crying for them. And here they are, in the news again, reeling from yet another quake that has so far claimed a reported 2,000+ lives, an as-yet-unknown number of injuries, and widespread devastation. Aid is on the way, but how much is able to reach them will depend upon what the ruling Taliban allows.

The future is always unknown; but what lies ahead for Afghanistan does not look hopeful at this time. As with so much of life, we can only wait and hope for the best.

*. *. *

And now, back to Israel. War has officially been declared against Hamas by Israel, whose Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has said his country is “embarking on a long and difficult war.” Hamas has not only attacked the civilian population; they have taken hostages, including women and children, and have even paraded a young female hostage, half naked, on an open vehicle through the streets of an Israeli town. That is not war; that is barbarism, plain and simple. And Israel will not let that pass unanswered.

*. *. *

It’s now dinnertime (Eastern), and the news is filled with ever-increasing estimates of those already killed in this first full day of the Israeli-Gaza war. There are rumors that Iran may have been involved in the planning and execution of the Hamas attack, though as of this time those rumors have not been verified.

And already, Turkey’s President Erdogan, who has supported Palestinians in the past, has offered his purportedly unbiased services as negotiator: the one man who (he says) is best suited to bring peace, or at least a truce, to a region that has never really known peace. I hope he’s more successful than he has been in negotiating between Russia and Ukraine.

We sometimes forget that a conflict in the Middle East invariably affects more than just the Middle East. Already, synagogues and Jewish schools in the United States are adding greater security to their buildings to protect against possible terrorist attacks. Back in 1994, while transiting through the Rome airport, I witnessed the immediate mobilization of the Italian military when news was received of a shooting — “just” a shooting, not an all-out declaration of war — in the West Bank of Israel. So I can only imagine how Europe is reacting to this weekend’s news. We are a world on edge.

*. *. *

I’m not feeling very upbeat today, but in my reading I did find one almost amusing example of history doing what it does best: repeating itself. This was part of an analysis as to why the Soviet Union was forced to withdraw from Afghanistan in 1989:

“The Soviet soldiers occupied much of Afghanistan, but they could never control the whole country. Soviet soldiers in Afghanistan lacked the proper military tactics for guerrilla warfare in Afghanistan’s rugged mountainous terrain, and many of the Soviet troops were young conscripts who were untested in combat.” [Emphasis is mine.]

Substitute “Ukraine” for “Afghanistan,” and you’ve got today’s Russian army trying to take over a determined, motivated country that doesn’t want to be taken . . . a Russian army using mostly “young conscripts” and suffering a lack of “proper military tactics.” They just don’t seem able to remember even their own history.

All of which has brought back a fond memory of my own. In 1990, while at a conference in London on doing business in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, I became involved in a somewhat heated discussion with one of the speakers — a high-ranking Soviet Foreign Ministry official — who made the mistake of criticizing the long-past involvement of the U.S. in Vietnam. I tried to cool things down a bit by conceding that that bit of history had not ended as one of America’s finest moments, but he wouldn’t let it go. So I said, “Well, let’s just call it America’s Afghanistan.” At that point, he puffed up like a blowfish and fell back on the standard Soviet retort when there was no other answer: “That is an internal matter.” Forcing myself not to laugh, I replied, “Oh, yeah? Tell that to the Afghanis” — and walked away as he turned beet red and tried, unsuccessfully, to think of something to say.

It was a glorious moment, as some of my colleagues, who had been standing nearby and witnessed the whole exchange, did everything but applaud. Sometimes the fates just hand you the perfect opportunity and the right words to take advantage of it. That was my moment.

*. *. *

Hopefully, that’s it for today, as it’s the middle of the night in Israel. With any luck, it will be a quieter one.

Brendochka
10/9/23