Today I would like to pass along my two new favorite quotations, from much wiser and more eloquent individuals than I. Their words need no amplification; any commentary by me would be, not only superfluous, but downright presumptuous. So, for today, I shall stay silent and let others speak. You’re welcome.

*. *. *

“The greatest evils in the world will not be carried out by men with guns, but by men in suits sitting behind desks.” — C. S. Lewis

and . . .

When asked how fascism starts, this man’s reply was: “First, they fascinate the fools. Then they muzzle the intelligent.” — Bertrand Russell

Take from them what you will.

Just sayin’ . . . or not, for once.

Brendochka
5/10/24

Note: All of the following photographs have been seen many times before, individually. But thanks to CNN for putting them, and more, together in one place; you’ve made this endeavor much easier.

When I meet someone new, the first thing I look at is the person’s eyes. The rest can wait a minute, while I get a sense of the character of the individual. Because the eyes are where it shows. A gracious smile, a warm “pleased to meet you,” even a firm handshake, can all be rehearsed. But the eyes, as William Shakespeare told us, “are the window to your soul.”

I will never meet Vladimir Putin. But looking at a series of photographs of his life as compiled by CNN, I was immediately struck by the eyes in each and every picture. Whether laughing, serious, concentrating or relaxed, those eyes said only one thing to me: RUN! RUN LIKE HELL!

I present a few of them here, without commentary. See what you think:

And now, having looked carefully at each photograph, I would like you to think about your answer to one simple question:

“Would you buy a used car from this man?”

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
5/9/24

* If you must know — although the very end of the second word is not visible — I’m quite certain the writing on the young woman’s back says “F*ck off, Putin.” But it’s not her back he seems to be focused on.

To Vladimir Kara-Murza . . . Russian historian, journalist, author, filmmaker, human rights advocate, and Kremlin critic . . . to you, I offer my sincerest, most heartfelt congratulations on having been awarded the Pulitzer Prize for your columns written from your prison cell in Siberia. For your courage and ingenuity alone, you are more than worthy of this honor. For your words and thoughts, the world is indebted to you.

The announcement of the award was made yesterday, May 7th. It said that he was being recognized for his “passionate columns” as a contributor to The Washington Post from his Siberian prison “under great personal risk.” Despite the danger, his writing “warns of the consequences of dissent in Vladimir Putin’s Russia and insists on a democratic future for his country.” [Mariya Knight, CNN, May 6, 2024.]

Needless to say, Kara-Murza will not be able to accept the award in person; his wife, Evgenia Kara-Murza, will most likely stand in for him.

For those who have not been following his story, he was tried for criminal offenses including treason, spreading “fake news” about the Russian military, and cooperating with an “undesirable organization.” He was sentenced to 25 years in a “strict regime correctional colony,” where he is being kept in solitary confinement and denied essential medical treatment for a debilitating condition. His real crime: criticism of Vladimir Putin.

At the close of his trial in Moscow on April 10, 2023, he was allowed to make a statement. Rather than the traditional apology or plea for mercy, he spoke — as always — from the heart, knowing that he was doing himself no favor. His words, in part, are well worth repeating here:

“Members of the court: I was sure, after two decades spent in Russian politics, after all that I have seen and experienced, that nothing can surprise me anymore. I must admit that I was wrong. I’ve been surprised by the extent to which my trial, in its secrecy and its contempt for legal norms, has surpassed even the ‘trials’ of Soviet dissidents in the 1960s and ‘70s. And that’s not even to mention the harshness of the sentence requested by the prosecution or the talk of ‘enemies of the state.’ In this respect, we’ve gone beyond the 1970s — all the way back to the 1930s. For me, as a historian, this is an occasion for reflection.” [The full column can be found on the Washington Post website.]

Frightening words, harking back to the show trials of the Stalin era. But he speaks the truth, as is painfully obvious from even a cursory review of Vladimir Putin’s 24-year reign . . . officially as President, but in reality, as dictator of Russia. And for this, good men and women such as Vladimir Kara-Murza, Ilya Yashin, Alsu Kurmasheva, Boris Akunin, and countless others are rotting in Russian prisons, while others like Boris Nemtsov, Alexei Navalny, Anna Politkovskaya, Boris Berezovsky, Aleksandr Litvinenko, and more have paid with their lives.

As long as the noble survivors continue to speak out, perhaps there is hope. We cannot stand by and allow the good people of Russia to be dragged back into the horrors of the 70-year communist experiment. Even the honor of a Pulitzer Prize is not enough; the lives of these heroes must not have been sacrificed in vain. They need our unflagging support.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
5/8/24

And Vladimir Putin is playing games with them.

He has them, and he says he’s ready and willing to use them, if . . .

“If” what? Well, for example, if Ukraine were to strike Russian territory with U.K.-supplied weapons, Russia might retaliate with strikes on British military facilities and equipment on Ukrainian soil or elsewhere. And in preparation for such an eventuality, Russia will soon be holding drills simulating the use of battlefield nuclear weapons. The British and French Ambassadors in Moscow have been so advised . . . and so have we all.

What has brought this about, according to the Kremlin, are some recent comments by senior Western officials indicating possible increased involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, “The drills are a response to ‘provocative statements and threats of certain Western officials regarding the Russian Federation.’” [Associated Press, May 6, 2024.]

Yeah, sure . . . it’s all our fault. It’s always someone else’s fault. Russia isn’t responsible for having invaded Ukraine; the West invited trouble by considering admission to NATO of a country that — according to Putin & Company — is being governed by Nazis who are committing violent crimes against Ukrainians the Russian government claims are actually Russian citizens as a result of Russia’s illegal annexing of areas of Ukraine in 2014 and since 2022. Got that?

Gibberish! Jabberwocky! Balderdash!

Bullshit!

But so said Tsar Putin, and on the very eve of his fifth inauguration (today, in fact) as President of the Russian Federation. So it must be taken as gospel.

Unfortunately, French President Emmanuel Macron keeps yapping about the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine; and U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron has indeed said that British long-range weapons would be able to strike targets inside Russia. And these were all the provocation Putin needed to escalate his rhetoric. So he sent his mouthpiece — my favorite stand-up comic, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov — to take front and center. But Dmitry wasn’t feeling the humor this day when — referring to Western officials’ comments — he said:

“It’s a new round of escalation. It’s unprecedented and requires special attention and special measures.” [AP, id.]

And, being summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry in Moscow, the British Ambassador to Russia was told “to think about the inevitable catastrophic consequences of such hostile steps from London.” [AP, id.]

Finally — never to be outdone, or to pass up an opportunity to spew a bit of venom at the world — Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of the Russian Security Council — “said in his typically hawkish fashion that the comments by Macron and Cameron risked pushing the nuclear-armed world toward a ‘global catastrophe.’” [AP, id.]

But in the midst of all of this furious, threatening hyperbole from Putin, Peskov, Medvedev, and the Foreign and Defense Ministries, what was most obviously missing was any mention of who started this whole mess back in February of 2022 and has been blasting the daylights out of sovereign Ukraine for more than two years. How convenient is Russia’s selective memory! But the world knows . . . and blame has been squarely laid at Russia’s feet. Further, “NATO countries said last week they are deeply concerned by a campaign of hybrid activities on the military alliance’s soil, accusing Moscow of being behind them and saying they represent a security threat.” To which Dmitry Peskov dismissively responded, without so much as cracking a smile, that such claims are simply “new, unfounded accusations leveled at our country.” [AP, id.]

Deny, deny, deny. It’s what they always do. It’s also what a three-year-old does when caught with a hand in the cookie jar. That, and threaten to hold his breath until he turns blue if he doesn’t get his own way. We’re dealing with three-year-olds here!

But they’re three-year-olds with weapons of mass destruction.

So is this just one more case of posturing and saber-rattling on Vladimir Putin’s part? Or is he actually prepared to commit suicide by making good on his threats? According to Andrii Yusov, spokesman for Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Agency, “Nuclear blackmail is a usual practice of Putin’s regime; it does not constitute major news.” [AP, id.]

I sincerely hope you’re right, sir.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
5/7/24

“. . . seek, and ye shall find . . .” Matthew, 7:7-8.

It’s true. I sought, and I found more information on Russell Bentley, who seems after all to have “turned up dead” eleven days after his disappearance on April 8th. The word is that he was most likely “picked up by soldiers mistaking him for an American or NATO spy.” [DailyMail.com, April 25, 2024.] Although if he’d been embedded with the Vostok Battalion for so long, how could he not have identified himself to them? . . .

At any rate, that just confirms what has already been reported about Russell’s mysterious disappearance. What is even more interesting, though, is what was previously unknown about him, at least to most of the world. His death has precipitated an apparent media storm in Russia, where he is said to have been a “propaganda favorite” of the government, including his most recent stint as a reporter for state-run Sputnik-TV. He was an American turncoat of the sort usually only dreamt of by the Kremlin, dropped right into their laps.

His murder has been depicted as a tragic error, understandably occurring when he was found photographing scenes of destruction in Russia-annexed areas of Ukraine. But was it indeed a mistake? It is now known that he had become involved in ultranationalist circles, “and his death has made him the latest in a number of leaders of the annexation of eastern Ukraine to show up dead . . .” It is still not clear why he really was detained on April 8th, or exactly how he was killed; but “unverified reports said he was kidnapped by ‘unknown people in military uniforms.’” [Id.] There were a few more grisly details, better left unsaid here. But his involvement with the ultranationalist movement, which generally promotes the opinion that Russia is not pursuing the war aggressively enough, immediately brings to mind the fate of the like-minded Yevgeny Prigozhin, the late leader of the Wagner Group, and his attempted revolt against the military. That sort of criticism does not sit well with Vladimir Putin.

*. *. *

But you may be wondering how a burly, middle-aged Texan wound up in Ukraine, fighting with the Russian military, in the first place. What must the first half-century of his life have been like? Was he poverty-stricken, neglected, abused? Were his parents “closet commies?”

The answers to those questions are: Fine, no, no, no, and no.

In fact, in an interview for a 2022 article in Rolling Stone, he revealed that he had grown up in the very exclusive Dallas, Texas, neighborhood of Highland Park, which he called “the Beverly Hills of Dallas.” He portrayed himself as the “black sheep” of his family, drawn to communist ideas and anti-Vietnam causes. He read, and admired, Ho Chi Minh and Che Guevara. He described himself as “anti-racist” and “anti-imperialist.”

Somewhere along the way, he became a drug dealer. He was convicted of drug trafficking in 1996, sentenced to five years in prison, and somehow escaped after three years, remaining at large until 2007. He was then recaptured and ordered to serve the remainder of his sentence in a maximum-security prison.

Inexplicably, he had managed in 1990 . . . well before his run-in with the law . . . to become a candidate for the U.S. Senate in Minnesota — a state as different from Texas as one could hope to find. His platform largely revolved around the legalization of marijuana; he won only 1.65 percent of the vote.

He was, in the simplest of terms, a born loser.

*. *. *

Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014 may have been the spark that ignited his fervor. He described it thus: “This is the battle, not just of Ukraine. This is the battle between good-and-evil for the future of the world. And right now, it’s looking like the world might just have a chance because us [sic] and our friends are kicking some Nazi ass right now.” [DailyMail.com, id., citing Rolling Stone.]

And in 2022, when Russia once more invaded Ukraine, he announced his support on Russian social media platform VKontakte: “Heading West with the Liberators of Ukraine. We may stop in Kiev, we may stop on the English Channel. We may liberate the USA.” [DailyMail.com, id.]

In reality, he was stopped in Donetsk, Ukraine.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
5/6/24

It has been a quieter week, in the sense of being unable to find updated information on any of the HOSTAGES already on my list, or reports of any new victims of Putin’s purges. I suppose that’s a good thing.

There is, of course, the ongoing saga of the (apparently) late Russell “Tex” Bentley, the American adventurer who fled his home in Texas in 2014 to serve in the Russian army in Ukraine . . . only to be deemed a “CIA spy” after ten years of loyal service to the Kremlin, and dealt with in ways as yet unconfirmed. He is reportedly deceased and thus not eligible for anyone’s hostage list; but look for more about him in tomorrow’s post.

*. *. *.

In the meantime, I once again implore you, please do not forget those who remain HOSTAGES; their families and friends haven’t. And here, one more time, are their pictures as a weekly reminder that they are real, and truly suffering. In no particular order, they are:

Brendochka
5/5/24

The United States and Russia already have their respective — and very different — definitions; now maybe we should ask a Georgian. (That would be a Georgian from the ancient country in the Caucasus Mountains, not the U.S. home state of peaches, peanuts, and Scarlett O’Hara.)

Because there is currently a great hullabaloo being raised in the capital city of Tbilisi over a proposed bill that’s been put forth in the Georgia Parliament that, if passed, would establish a law governing the activities of “Foreign Agents.”

The problem seems to be in defining a “foreign agent,” and then determining what such a creature would and would not legally be allowed to do if he or she wished to avoid penalties . . . and, not incidentally, just what those penalties would be. It’s a sticky wicket all around.

No, this little guy is not the type of “foreign agent” we’re talking about . . . or is he? In the U.S., he (or she) would more likely be referred to as a “secret agent,” or simply . . . well, let’s call a spy a spy, shall we? That is not what we mean when we refer to our Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). Not exactly.

FARA was enacted in 1938 primarily to counter Nazi propaganda, with an initial focus on criminal prosecution of subversive activities. Since 1966, though, enforcement has shifted primarily to civil penalties and voluntary compliance. It does not prohibit lobbying for foreign interests, nor does it ban or restrict any specific activities. It does require transparency, with an initial registration and periodic (every six months) filings of updates thereafter. Its explicit purpose is to promote transparency with respect to any possible foreign influence over American public opinion, policy, and laws . . . such as interference in our election process, with which we have become all too familiar in recent years.

This is not, however, how Russia sees a “foreign agent.” For the Kremlin’s purposes, that would be any individual or organization that allegedly is in the pay of, or under the influence of, or in any way associated with a foreign entity or individual that does not toe the official line, thus being assumed as guilty of “distributing false information,” “insulting the government or the military,” or — in the worst-case scenario — out-and-out treason. And the penalties are not mere fines; rather, they almost invariably involve long-term sentences of incarceration in Russia’s harshest prisons and penal colonies. And there are hundreds of inmates to substantiate it . . . as well as a few who did not, or may not, survive.

*. *. *

So, why did I say to “ask a Georgian”? Because there is presently a bill before the Georgian Parliament aiming to reintroduce a “Russian-style foreign agents’ law similar to one they were forced to withdraw a year ago.” [VOA News, April 26, 2024.] And the people of Georgia — a former Soviet Republic that has fought so long and so hard since the dissolution of the Soviet Union to establish and maintain a West-leaning, democratic government — have taken to the streets en masse to oppose its passage. Because they know the danger; they have lived it in the past, and refuse to accept it as their future.

The U.S. has expressed its concern to Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze in the form of a letter from a bipartisan group (unusual enough in itself) of 14 U.S. Senators, warning that passage of the bill could “undermin[e] Georgia’s European future and its relations with the U.S.,” and further that, if the legislation were to become law, “they [the group of 14] would be compelled to encourage a shift in U.S. policy toward Georgia.” [VOA News, id.]

Opponents of the proposed law say that it is designed to stifle the freedom of speech of Georgian individuals and organizations, including the activities of election monitors, by labelling them as “foreign agents” — “which in the post-Soviet context equates them to traitors.” [Id.] The Georgian government’s proponents, however, equate the law to the U.S. Foreign Agents Registration Act. But the Senators’ letter rejected that allegation:

“We must also make it clear that the reintroduced foreign agents’ law does not mirror any U.S. law and would be used to silence the civil society and media that play a significant role in advancing Georgia’s democratic institution.” [Id.]

*. *. *

I do not propose to interpret the language of the Georgian bill. But I have seen the manner in which the Putin government has used their law to stifle any and all dissent. And if the fear of the Georgian people that the same thing would happen in their country is indeed legitimate — and all indications are that it is — then the people must be supported in their opposition, and the government of Georgia discouraged as strongly as possible from imposing any such Soviet-style restrictions upon their freedom-loving citizenry. Make no mistake: the future of their country is at stake.

And to the good people of Georgia, I wish the best of luck and success, now and in the future.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
5/5/24

She’s beautiful, she’s eloquent, she’s fluent in 30 languages, she’s a new spokesperson for the government of Ukraine . . . and she is not human. She is, in fact, a creation of Artificial Intelligence. And she scares the hell out of me.

Her name, inexplicably, is Victoria Shi. She doesn’t look Ukrainian; she doesn’t “look” anything at all. She could be anyone, from anywhere. She speaks English (which is the only language I’ve heard her speak) with a slight Ukrainian accent that is quite charming. From the brief video I viewed online, she seems to have one facial expression; one vocal intonation, though not a monotone; and one postural stance, though she moves her head and hands appropriately. She appears emotionless. But, somehow, what she says commands your attention, which is the whole idea.

And she answers questions like a well-trained, professional diplomat. She was interviewed by Ray Furlong of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), and she never missed a beat. (Check it out on Facebook, or on the RFE/RL website.) She answered questions as to why Ukraine felt it needed a virtual spokesperson, and even exhibited a sense of humor when she said she doesn’t sleep or eat and is therefore able to work 24/7. She explained how she was protected from being illegally cloned. She was perfect.

And that is what scares me. I’m afraid of technology. Well, too much technology, anyway. Drones are bad enough — horrible, actually — but clones?!! True, they can’t physically harm us real people (yet), but I’ll tell you why I fear them:

They can replace us.

Not all of us, but quite a few. First, there is that no-sleep-24/7 thing. She could replace three people in eight-hour shifts. What kinds of jobs? Customer service representatives come immediately to mind. Or schedulers and others who answer the phones in medical facilities. Think about that the next time you’re trying to get a refund for a faulty product, or find out about the results of your recent lab tests. Will that lovely voice on the other end of the line be able to handle your anger and frustration, or will you just keep hearing, “I’m so sorry you have been inconvenienced; be assured that your satisfaction is our first priority”?

Secretaries, bookkeepers, and other office workers are already becoming less and less visible because of automated processes that make it possible for one person to do the work of two, three, or more. It’s all assembly-line labor now, with no time for those chats by the water fountain . . . and it is mind-numbing and incentive-destroying.

And think about the people who previously held those jobs. Where are they working now? Retail sales? Those are rapidly being wiped out by online shopping. Fast-food restaurants? Sorry, but those are becoming more and more automated by the day as well, putting even greater numbers of people out of work. Before you know it, our city streets will be clogged with more Uber drivers than we would ever need . . . until driverless cars are perfected, that is. I suppose some of us could be retrained to build and repair all of the new technology, and to hell with job satisfaction. In a few years, no one will even remember what that was.

*. *. *

No, it’s not Victoria who terrifies me. There are many excellent applications for AI and other advanced technologies. But it’s what she symbolizes. Are we carrying it too far . . . or have we perhaps already done so? Are we truly headed for self-imposed obsolescence?

It’s things like this that keep me awake at night . . . but also make me glad I am the age that I am, with not that many years left to witness what humankind is doing to itself. Sometimes I think we owe our children an apology for this world we’re leaving to them . . . but then I realize that they’re the ones who invented all this technocrap.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka (the real live me)
5/4/24

It was obvious from the get-go that this was going to be an odd one, when a middle-aged self-styled communist from Texas, having defected to Russia in 2014 to join the army and fight “Nazis” in Ukraine, suddenly disappears after ten years — purportedly kidnapped and brutally murdered because he is suspected of being a CIA spy.

Sound like a Tom Clancy novel? Nope, sorry . . . it’s real life. I’m telling you: you just can’t make this stuff up.

They (the Russians) keep saying he’s dead. But where is his body? Is there a murder without a corpse? And what about . . .

Wait a second. The most logical way to approach this would probably be to create a timeline of events, insofar as I know them; so let’s try that.

*. *. *

In 2014, Bentley joined the Russian forces fighting in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. He married a Ukrainian woman, Lyudmila, with whom he has since lived in Petrovsky, Donetsk. According to Al Jazeera (April 29, 2024), “He reportedly obtained Russian citizenship in 2021, and last year started working as a correspondent with the pro-Kremlin Russian news agency Sputnik.”

For a good ol’ boy from Texas, Bentley certainly did develop a unique philosophy of his own throughout the first 55 years of his life:

“Bentley had described himself as a ‘poet’ and had said the US today is ‘governed by a group of original fascists and oligarchic companies, enemies of Russia and humanity as a whole.’

“He said he devoted his life to fighting against them, especially after the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, which he claimed were ‘based on lies, and their committing crimes against humanity there.’” [Al Jazeera, April 29, 2024.]

Fast-forward to April 2024:

April 8: Russell Bentley is allegedly kidnapped. Wife Lyudmila waits about a week before reporting this to the police, who opened a criminal case that has now been turned over to a “military investigation committee.”

April 17: An article about Bentley’s disappearance appears (unlike Bentley himself) in the Daily Beast.

April 18: Finding Bentley’s story fascinating, I write my first blog chapter about him, at which time there is very little hard information, but a whole lot of questions.

April 19: An announcement is made on X by Margarita Simonyan — editor-in-chief of the Russia Today (RT) news channel, and reportedly a “close confidante” of Vladimir Putin — to the effect that Bentley has died in Donetsk “fighting ‘for our people.’” [Al Jazeera, id.] At or about the same time, Bentley’s former battalion, the Vostok Battalion, issued a statement on Telegram saying that “those who killed Russell Bentley . . . [will be dealt] exemplary punishment.” [Al Jazeera, id.]

April 20: The New York Post reports: “The body of Russell Bentley, a 64-year-old U.S. Army vet, was recovered in the Russian-controlled region of Donetsk Oblast, Reuters reported.”

April 24: Allison Quinn of the Daily Beast reports that “Unconfirmed reports have been circulating among Russian military bloggers to the effect that Bentley ‘suffered a gruesome death at the hands of Russian troops who mistook him for a spy.’’ And Lyudmila Bentley stated on Telegram: “I know that his remains have been seen. But then I’m told that there are no remains. How is that?”

April 27: I post a follow-up, still with a plethora of questions but no solid conclusions.

April 29: Along comes the aforementioned Al Jazeera article under the headline: “Russell Bentley: Pro-Russia fighter from US dies after Donetsk ‘abduction,’” with a sub-head reading: ‘Russians call for ‘revenge’ after the 64-year-old US-Russian citizen, who’s fought against Ukraine, dies.”

*. *. *

Now, wait just a damn minute here!

According to the Daily Beast report of April 24th, Russian military bloggers are saying he “suffered a gruesome death at the hands of Russian troops who mistook him for a spy.” But now, according to Al Jazeera, “Russians” — they don’t say which ones — are calling for revenge. Against whom? Themselves? An entire battalion? Or just the specific perps? Have they actually been identified? And, one more time, where in hell is Russell Bentley’s body . . . or what’s left of it?

And one further question: Why did Al Jazeera enclose ‘abduction’ in quotation marks? Is there still uncertainty as to who did what to whom on April 8th?

I’m sure his widow, the grieving Lyudmila, would like some answers.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
5/3/24

What’s that sound? I seem to hear a puzzled “WHO???” coming from all directions. You mean you’ve never heard of Ramzan Kadyrov?

It’s understandable, really; his is not exactly a household name. But if you’re one of the odd group of individuals who call ourselves Russophiles, you will know that he is the brutal overlord who, with the blessing of Vladimir Putin, sits at the head of the government of the Russian Republic of Chechnya.

But you don’t have to be a Russophile to be aware of the role Chechnya has played in Russia’s war against Ukraine, sending thousands of troops into the battlefield. Or the fierce, animalistic brutality with which those troops are known to fight and to treat both their military adversaries and innocent civilians. Kadyrov is Putin’s Puppet, doing his master’s bidding without question or hesitation . . . or conscience.

It hasn’t always been this way, though. In the 1990s, Chechnya fought two separatist wars with the Russian government . . . and lost. Kadyrov’s father, Akhmad Kadyrov, was head of the Chechen government then, and ceded the second war to Putin’s administration in 2003 . . . a move that proved both smart and fatal. He was rewarded with the presidency of the Chechen Republic in 2003; and he was assassinated in 2004. The seat was then occupied by one Alu Alkhanov for three years until he was dismissed by Putin in 2007, at which time our friend Ramzan turned 30 (the age at which one is eligible for the presidency in Chechnya). And he has been Vladimir Putin’s best friend in the Caucasus ever since.

Now, however, rumor has it that Ramzan Kadyrov, at the tender age of 47, is terminally ill, possibly as a result of the pancreatic necrosis with which he was diagnosed some five years ago. But details are sparse, due largely to the Kremlin’s efforts to convince the world that Kadyrov is still in good health.

Now I hear you asking: “Why?” Excellent question. Indeed, why would the loss of one man, merely the head of a Russian republic and not a sovereign nation, be of such importance?

Because of the order of succession. Normally, one of Kadyrov’s sons would inherit the office, as Ramzan did when he became of age. But Ramzan Kadyrov’s sons are just 18 and 15 years old. Instead, there are two individuals considered as likely successors: Major General Apti Alaudinov, commander of the Chechen Akhmat mercenary units in Ukraine, and Adam Delimkhanov, Kadyrov’s counsel and representative of Chechnya in the Russian Parliament.

As elucidated by Mark Galeotti of The Sunday Times:

“This is why Kadyrov’s likely death matters so much. If attempts to install a new leader cause splits in the Chechen elite, then this is likely to become not just a political but an armed dispute.”

And as one Russian political commentator succinctly put it: “There are too many men with guns and grudges there to be able to assume that things won’t turn bloody.” [Elliott Goat, The Week UK, April 30, 2024.]

And therein lies Putin’s problem. In simplest terms:

“Were the region to descend into armed conflict, the Russian president would have to decide whether to divert troops from Ukraine to restore order or risk losing Chechnya altogether.

“His brutal handling of the would-be breakaway territory 25 yeear ago made Putin’s name and established him as a ruthless and uncompromising leader. A quarter of a century on [in other words, now], it could prove his undoing.” [The Week UK, id.] [Emphasis is mine.]

And that’s why it matters.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
5/2/24