Viktor Orban is now in the business of predicting the future.

I have written much about Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, of late (see particularly, “The Return of the Habsburgs” – 7/26/24). He has been busily assembling a group of like-minded European leaders — all fellow members of the EU, and all but Austria also NATO members — in an alliance he calls “Patriots for Europe.” Briefly, he appears to be reestablishing the Habsburg Empire, in a 21st Century version.

And it is most significant that Orban and his colleagues — including Robert Fico, Prime Minister of Slovakia — are avowed admirers of Vladimir Putin, to whom Orban has been trying to sell himself as the guy who can settle the “conflict” (i.e., the war) in Ukraine.

Now he is stepping forward to reinvent himself once again, this time as the all-seeing prognosticator whose visions of the future world — the one to which we are now allegedly headed — will create an alternative path, one that will prevent a universal disaster and build a more “hyperrational” world.

A world with Asia and Russia as its core.

What does he foresee? Well, for openers:

He predicts that Ukraine will never be able to become a member of NATO or the EU.

In a speech before ethnic Hungarians in neighboring Romania, he predicts that, “In the next long decades, maybe centuries, Asia will be the dominant centre of the world,” specifically naming China, India, Pakistan and Indonesia as the world’s future great powers. [Reuters, July 27, 2024.]

(Sorry, Viktor, but Nostradamus — the real one — beat you to that prediction centuries ago.)

And then he switches from forecasting to the blame game:

“And we Westerners pushed the Russians into this bloc as well.” He declared that the West was “weak,” and that Russia’s position in world affairs was “rational and predictable.” He praised Russia for its ability to adapt to Western sanctions, and then inexplicably added:

“The strongest international appeal of Russian soft power is its opposition to LGBTQ.” [Reuters, id.]

Well, that’s setting us straight . . . so to speak.

*. *. *

When I said previously that Orban’s voice was one not to be ignored, I now believe I was seriously understating the case.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
7/30/24

On July 22nd, just over a week ago, I told the story of Rico Krieger, a German citizen who had been arrested in Belarus, tried, and convicted on six charges including “acts of terrorism.”

And sentenced to death.

And three days ago, the story appeared of his apparent “confession” to having planted explosives near a railway line.

In a 16-minute, obviously “heavily choreographed” interview, there is no evidence presented to support the charges. Krieger states that he was acting on instructions from Ukraine; again, no proof is offered. He then appeals — in tears — to the German government for help “before it is too late.” [Sarah Rainsford, BBC News, July 26, 2024.]

From the beginning, this had all the earmarks of a hostage-for-trade situation, possibly created on behalf of the Russian government. Vladimir Putin has already made it known that he is desirous of arranging a swap for one of his paid assassins — one Vadim Krasikov —serving a life sentence for murder . . . in Germany, of all places. What an amazing coincidence! And it has thus far been impossible to work out a three-way arrangement with Germany and the U.S., using one of Putin’s American hostages — possibly Evan Gershkovich or Paul Whelan, or even both — as bait.

How convenient, then, to have a German hostage, thus eliminating the U.S. as middleman in the negotiations. And with a death sentence hanging over Mr. Krieger, the matter becomes even more urgent.

Putin must be desperate to get Krasikov back in Moscow. And if he can gain an added advantage by throwing some blame at Ukraine . . . well, it’s two birds with one stone.

And with his loyal ally, Aleksandr Lukashenko, in Belarus to lend a hand, he may just have found a way.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
7/30/24

Let the name-calling begin.

No, not this group. This was a meeting of the minds — the minds of allies Japan and the United States — in Tokyo yesterday, where discussions of U.S.-Japan relations included a focus on enlarging and modernizing their military coordination in the face of looming threats from China.

The joint statement issued at the conclusion of the meeting — which included U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, and Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Defense Minister Minoru Kihara — clarified the convergence of Washington’s and Tokyo’s views on China, characterizing that country as “the ‘greatest strategic challenge’ in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.” [CNN’s Meanwhile in China, July 29, 2024.]

And then the fun began:

China (from Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian): “Japan and the United States keep saying that they want to promote regional peace and security and maintain a rules-based international order. In fact, they form cliques, engage in small circles, manipulate group politics, and create camp confrontations.”

U.S.-Japan (in Joint Statement): Repeated mention of Beijing’s “intensifying attempts to unilaterally change the status quo [and its] threatening and provocative activities in the South China Sea, [and its] support for Russia’s defense industrial base.”

China (Lin Jian again): “[The joint statement] disregards facts, reverses right and wrong, and maliciously attacks China’s foreign policy … and exaggerates and stirs up China’s threat.”

China (today): Lin said further that China is “a builder of world peace [and a] defender of international order,” while actions from the U.S. and Japan are the “real challenges facing regional peace, security and stability.”

[Quotes from CNN, id.]

*. *. *

Earlier today I spoke about the joint China-Russia air “exercises” over the Bering Sea on Alaska’s doorstep. That was obviously just the tip of the proverbial iceberg that is the current status of U.S.-China relations. It’s a sad reminder of the late 1970s, when the two countries were able to establish diplomatic and trade relations that lasted to mutual advantage for the past four decades.

Where are Henry Kissinger and — yes, even Richard Nixon — when you really need them? Oh, right . . . they’ve passed on. And their successors? We shall see. But it seems, in all areas of domestic politics and international diplomacy, that the era of the great statesman has also passed.

And we are paying dearly for that.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
7/29/24

. . . and you’d have to be living in a mole hole to avoid it . . .

There are some things you can do to elevate your mood — or at least your level of tolerance.

No, I do not recommend getting falling-down-making-a-total-ass-of-yourself drunk. The hangover isn’t worth it, the booze is expensive, and who knows what kind of trouble you’ll get into while your brain is somewhere else.

But you might . . .

Oh, now, that looks heavenly. It only lasts an hour, and it’s not cheap, but oh! What an hour that is!

Of course, there’s always . . .

The primal scream. It works best under a couple of pillows, where no one else has to be subjected to your attempt at reaching high-C. But the bathtub works well too.

And I’ve always found refuge in . . .

The “shop-‘til-you-drop” method of mood enhancement. It usually lifts my spirits . . . until the credit card bill arrives.

*. *. *

My choice today, however, is the one that’s always worked best for me when I’m unhappy, upset, bored, frustrated, or lonely. It’s not expensive, and we’re really in luck today because it is both . . .

National Lasagna Day, and

National Chicken Wing Day!

And I see no reason why you can’t have both at one meal, and more. Would you like fries with that?

Now, if you’re thinking that just one day of gluttony isn’t enough to relieve you of the weight of the world on your shoulders, your luck is holding. Because tomorrow, July 30th, is also National Cheesecake Day. Dessert!

*. *. *

So take your pick of therapies, and if you’re so inclined, meet me in the kitchen. Who cares about calories if the world is about to blow up anyway?

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
7/29/24

Well, that doesn’t sound like much fun at all. And it isn’t.

Back on June 3rd, I wrote about a new kind of war being waged between the North and South Koreans: a balloon war. But not hot air balloons, and not water balloons. These were garbage balloons — filled with all sorts of filthy, disgusting, potentially contaminated waste materials, and being lobbed by the hundreds from North Korea into the South, allegedly in retaliation for the floaters that had been finding their way in the opposite direction for some years, delivering anti-North Korean propaganda leaflets. Just paper. In an earlier statement, Kim Yo Jong, the influential sister of North Korea’s President Kim Jong Un, referred to them as “dirty leaflets.”

So the Kim regime — never to be willingly bested — decided to “out-dirty” the South with their own balloons. But these — more than 3,000 of them just since May of this year — contained the likes of cigarette butts, discarded batteries, and even manure. Now, that’s dirty.

In response — and this is where the story begins to sound a bit like an episode of M*A*S*H — the South Koreans have been bombarding the folks in the North with loudspeaker broadcasts of propaganda along the demilitarized zone, as well as entertainment such as K-pop songs (which are anathema to the straight-laced Northerners). That truly sounds like Hawkeye Pierce and B.J. Hunnicutt vs. Charles Emerson Winchester III, making life interesting at the M*A*S*H 4077th.

But in real life, it’s not so funny. Someone has to clean up the mess, which is not only expensive, but presents a possible health hazard. While thus far no toxic materials appear to have been found, precautions still must be taken. Who knows when you might be standing under the next trash dump? The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) have cautioned the public not to touch the balloons, and to report any they find to the proper authorities.

In an earlier statement, the JCS had said: “North Korea’s actions clearly violate international law and seriously threaten the safety of our citizens. All responsibility arising from the North Korean balloons lies entirely with North Korea, and we sternly warn North Korea to immediately stop its inhumane and low-level actions.”

From the North, Kim Yo Jong has issued a “stern warning”: “It seems that the situation we cannot overlook is coming,” and further stating that there would be “a gruesome and dear price” to pay that could change the South’s “mode of counteraction” with the North. [Yoonjung Seo and Brad Lendon, CNN, July 24, 2024.] Sounds like an “or else” to me.

In the meantime, North Korea has also continued to express its displeasure (to put it mildly) with the military drills being held by the United States and South Korea on the Korean peninsula, the latest being the deployment of U.S. Marine Corps fighter jets to Suwon Air Base for joint aerial training this week. [CNN, id.] There seems to be a great deal of displeasure in the Kim household this week.

*. *. *

And while we try to sort out the possible ramifications of Korea’s ongoing trash wars, consider this: No peace treaty was ever signed between the North and South following the end of the Korean War in 1953. Technically, the two countries are still at war.

Let’s hope they continue to limit their battles to balloons and K-pop.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
7/29/24

P.S. And both sides should keep in mind that things could always be worse. See what happened this week in a neighborhood of Seattle, Washington:

Luckily, this one was only filled with hot air.

While Europe and the Middle East have dominated the international news of late, it hasn’t been all quiet on the Far Eastern front either. Though Japan, Thailand and Singapore still provide idyllic destinations for the vacationer seeking the beauty and historic charm of Asian cultures, we can’t ignore the rumblings and grumblings of those nearby totalitarian twins, China and North Korea.

We’ve all been aware of China’s designs on Taiwan; their air “exercises” perilously close to Japan; and now, a joint “exercise” with Russia in the skies overlooking — but wisely not entering the air space of — Alaska. And that, for the edification of the geographically challenged, is in the United States of America.

Oh-oh.

When you poke a hornet’s nest — in this case, the U.S. — you’d better have an escape plan. Because those hornets, while generally happy to be encased peacefully in their nest, do not take kindly to being poked. And when aroused . . . well . . . you can imagine.

So I present to you the ultimate anti-poking device: The U.S. Air Force B-2 Stealth Bomber.

And this is not just any old bomber. This one — or its twin — was part of the world’s largest naval drills recently held off the coast of Kauai, Hawaii, in which it proved its ability to take out a decommissioned amphibious assault ship (the USS TARAWA) with a single, inexpensive guided bomb.

Analysts have called this a “very significant” factor in any hypothetical future conflict between China and the United States. China has long relied on the size of its navy (the world’s largest), its stock of thousands of missiles on the Chinese mainland, and its ability to provide air cover to its ships from land-based aircraft. But analysts have said that the B-2 could negate some of China’s advantages with its long-range fire capability. [Brad Lendon, CNN, July 27, 2024.]

According to a U.S. Air Force website, arming these bombers with relatively inexpensive, effective, precision-guided bombs with warheads of up to 2,000 pounds “could give the Air Force bombers the ‘anti-ship lethality’ of a submarine-launched torpedo without the liabilities of a submarine.” [CNN, id.]

Following the U.S. air exercise, a press release from the U.S. Navy’s Third Fleet said: “This capability is an answer to an urgent need to quickly neutralize maritime threats over massive expanses of ocean around the world at minimal costs.” [CNN, id.]

That’s good news for the free world. For China, well . . . let’s call it a cautionary tale.

So, President Xi, I hope you’re paying attention. The United States — in fact, the entire civilized world — wants peace. We do not want war. We will do everything within our power to avoid it. Seriously, who wants to be exterminated? But that does not mean we are sitting idly by while you bully and threaten and shake your fists at us. For your own sake, and for the sake of the entire world, please don’t ever underestimate our capabilities, or our determination.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
7/29/24

NOTE: Comments on events in North Korea are coming up in a separate post, later today. Stay tuned . . .

Oh my God! Today’s headlines!

Israel! Hungary! Paris! Russia! Belarus! Celine Dion’s performance! (Oh wait — that was good news. Does it qualify as news?)

No time for that. Congrats, Celine. Gotta run now . . .

Where’s my iPad? Where are my glasses? Did I brush my teeth this morning?

Slow down, world . . . you’re killing me!

Brendochka
7/28/24

A chilling thought, even today. But in the mid-1960s, as a young mother of a toddler and an infant, it was something for which I was so completely unprepared, the experience actually made me physically ill. And the memory of it still does.

It was during the Cold War, when the world was focused on the threat of possible attack from the Soviet Union, and thoughts of World War II and the Nazi horrors were 20 years behind us. I was living in California, somewhere south of San Francisco, with my two children and then husband, who worked as an industrial engineer.

I was a stay-at-home mom at the time, and when I learned that we had been invited for dinner at the home of a friend of my husband’s from work, I was delighted. We had even been told to bring the children, as they had little ones of their own.

I don’t even remember their names now, but I do remember being told that they were from Germany, and thinking only that that probably meant the meal would be delicious. And on the following Saturday evening, packing up diapers and bottles of formula for the baby, off we went.

The evening was going well. The man and his wife were charming and hospitable; the children — ours and theirs — were behaving well; and, as expected, the food was outstanding. After a couple of drinks for the adults, talk turned to the couple’s history — where they were from, when they had come to the U.S., etc. And the husband decided to pull out an old family photo album to share.

I love looking at other people’s pictures, and especially old ones. We were happily leafing through the collection, seeing charming shots of happy people in 1930s Germany, when the husband turned a page and pointed proudly to a photo of a man he identified as his brother, who now lived in Argentina . . . a tall, distinguished-looking gentleman wearing, not an army uniform, but the distinctive black uniform and unmistakable insignia of the German SS.

And my blood froze.

As, apparently, did the rest of me. Because my husband immediately noticed, and didn’t argue when I suddenly developed a headache and said I needed to get home to put the babies to bed. Shaking, and choking back the bile that kept trying to force its way up my throat, I managed to say a reasonably polite good night and thanks for a lovely evening, and made a beeline for the car.

And as soon as the car doors were closed, the violent trembling began. I couldn’t stop it; all I could do was keep taking deep, gasping breaths until I was finally able to choke out some actual words. I said that I realized there was nothing to be done about the work situation, but that I would never, under any circumstances, see or speak to those people again. I needn’t have bothered — he understood completely, and had been as shocked as I was.

Well, nearly as shocked. He wasn’t Jewish.

*. *. *

I’ve had other, not quite so close, encounters with the American Nazi Party: a campaigner for the party’s founder, George Lincoln Rockwell, trying to hand me propaganda leaflets on the street in Virginia; and a demonstration on the Memorial Bridge connecting Washington, D.C.’s Lincoln Memorial and Virginia’s Arlington Cemetery. In the first instance, I told the scumbag to go to hell; in the second, I reported the illegal demonstration to the police, who promptly broke it up.

But nothing affected me as fiercely as coming into direct contact with an individual — a naturalized American citizen — who proudly showed off his Nazi roots to a total stranger.

And even now, nearly 80 years after the end of that horrific war and the Holocaust that took so many millions of lives, neo-Nazi groups continue to exist among us. Hatred, it seems, never dies.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
7/28/24

And the star of this week’s “Hostages for Putin” extravaganza is . . .

Alsu Kurmasheva, age 47, wife and mother, journalist for Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty. Arrested in Kazan while doing her job on October 18, 2024, for alleged failure to register as a “foreign agent.” After being held for nearly two months, additional charges of allegedly disseminating “fake news” were filed on December 12th. And then, nothing . . . until she was suddenly and hastily brought to trial on July 22, 2024, convicted of spreading false information about the Russian army, and sentenced to a prison term of 6-1/2 years.

Bam! Done and done.

*. *. *

On the same day, a court in Yekaterinburg convicted Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich of espionage, sentencing him to 16 years in prison. Both trials were scheduled suddenly, concluded rapidly, and held behind closed doors, the outcomes preordained.

*. *. *

The timing and the suddenness of the two trials has naturally raised questions as to how they can be anything but intentional, and what that intention is. When asked, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov — without whom one of my essays about Russia would surely not be complete — had this to say:

“I have no answer to this question. I leave this question unanswered.”

Stumped at last, eh, Dmitry?

Of course, you have no answer. Because the obvious one is that Kurmasheva and Gershkovich are two valuable additions to Putin’s collection of American hostages.

The U.S. Department of State has strongly urged all Americans presently in Russia to leave . . . before it’s too late. I can’t believe there is anyone foolish enough to still be there; I would have been gone long ago.

Just sayin’ . . .

*. *. *

And, as always, we pay our weekly tribute to all those HOSTAGES locked away in Russian prisons for strictly political reasons:

Vladimir Kara-Murza
Evan Gershkovich
Alsu Kurmasheva
Paul Whelan
Ilya Yashin
Staff Sgt. Gordon Black
Robert Woodland Romanov
Boris Akunin
Marc Hilliard Fogel
Asya Kazantseva
Ilya Barabanov
Aleksandr Skobov
Antonina Favorskaya
Oleg Orlov
Boris Kagarlitsky
Oleg Navalny
Ksenia Karelina
Ksenia Fadeyeva
Lilia Chanysheva
Vadim Ostanin
Sergei Udaltsov
Danuta Perednya
Olesya Krivtsova
Konstantin Gabov
Sergey Karelin
Sergey Mingazov
Michael Travis Leake

. . . and the hundreds of others whose names remain unknown to me. You have not been, and will not be, forgotten.

Brendochka
7/28/24

What do you say about a candidate who flat out tells an entire segment of the U.S. population — the Christian right — to get out there and vote him into office, and that he doesn’t give a crap whether they ever vote again? And I quote:

“You won’t have to (vote) anymore. Four more years. You know what? It’ll be fixed, it’ll be fine, you won’t have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians. I love you, Christians. You gotta get out and vote. In four years, you don’t have to vote again — we’ll have it fixed so good you’re not going to have to vote.” [Danya Gainor, CNN, July 27, 2024, on Trump’s July 26 speech in West Palm Beach.]

Is this a man who loves his country, who truly wants to keep it from being steam-rolled by Russia, by China, by North Korea?

Or is this a guy who just wants to get his fat ass back in that comfy chair in the Oval Office?

Now look at this picture. Not at Trump being his usual bombastic self. Look at the expression on Putin’s face. Doesn’t that tell you all you need to know? Because Vladimir Putin may be evil . . . but he’s not stupid. He’s got Trump’s number, and it’s a big #1. He knows Trump is all about getting himself back into the White House for four more years, after which . . . well, he just doesn’t give a shit.

And my go-to source of current Kremlinology, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov, said it perfectly just this week, when asked about the Kremlin’s assessment of how another Trump presidency might affect Russia:

“We have never worn and do not wear rose-coloured spectacles. (Trump) is a representative of the U.S. political elite, which is now all absolutely suffering from total anti-Russian sentiment.

When he was president, under Trump, the Americans started this sanctions race, under Trump a huge number of sanctions were imposed against our country, and in this respect he is not much different for us from everyone else.

Maybe he shows a little more political wisdom in terms of maintaining channels of dialogue. But de facto it does not have a special impact on anything, and we should be aware of that.” [Reuters, July 26, 2024.]

But that’s not really Moscow dismissing Trump’s importance to them, as you might think on a quick reading. What it actually is, is typical Kremlin double-speak, telling us what they want us to believe. While Vlad, also a narcissistic all-out-for-number-one kind of guy, will back Trump’s candidacy to the max, because it’s to his own advantage to have his “good buddy” — the candidate he can manipulate as he does his own true believers — back in the seat of power.

Confusing, isn’t it?

But, hey . . . that’s just politics. And the rest of us — the smart ones who stay out of the political dung heap — just have to live with it.

But we do get to vote.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
7/27/24