Is there anyone — one single person — in the Trump administration who might have thought ahead to the possible ancillary consequences of declaring war against Iran?

Whatever excuse they might offer for the decision to invade — whether it was their inability to reach a nuclear agreement to replace the one Trump tore up in his first term, or to “gift” the Iranian people with an opportunity for regime change, or both — did any of the brilliant billionaire businessmen in Donald Trump’s inner circle warn him about the likely effect their war would have on the world’s oil and gas markets?

Or was it — in a worst-case scenario — intentional?

From the point of view of the average American consumer, there are two immediate, personal effects of this week’s developments: (1) the already soaring price of fuel for our homes, businesses and vehicles, and (2) the inevitable human casualties, which Trump casually admits are to be expected.

But on a broader spectrum, let’s also look at the immediate ramifications elsewhere in the world. Take China, for example, which has been Iran’s largest energy customer. Now, with the Strait of Hormuz closed, they must look elsewhere for supplies of oil and gas. The same obviously holds true for Iran’s other buyers.

Add to that scenario the world’s recent loss of access to Venezuelan crude oil following Trump’s seizure of that resource, and what you see is the world’s largest remaining supplier of oil and gas — Russia — sitting pretty. And they have not hesitated to gloat about it.

While the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran for more than three decades, represents a loss to Putin of a dependable ally, it is still unclear whether the regime will actually be overthrown. In any case, Putin — ever the pragmatist — is looking on the bright side . . . and there is a very bright side in terms of his heretofore shrinking war chest, which is about to receive an enormous infusion of cash.

Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund and one of the principal members of the Russian team negotiating peace terms with Ukraine, happily posted on X this weekend:

“$100+ oil per barrel soon.” [Eva Hartog, Politico, March 1, 2026.]

And Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov broadcast:

“For our budget [the attack on Iran] is a big plus. If Trump strikes Iranian oil fields, then, as unfortunate as it sounds, we would become one of the few remaining [oil] producing countries. So we are gaining a trump card in this complex game.” [Id.]

I don’t know whether he was aware of his double entendre, which is obvious in the English-language version . . . but a “trump card” is precisely what they are holding.

Of course, Vladimir Putin personally expressed outrage over the attack. Ignoring the irony of his words vis-a-vis his own standing as an accused war criminal, he denounced the killing of Khamenei as “murder . . . committed in cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law.” [Id.]

Most likely, his concern was less for the death of a single human being, and more for the significance of a nation’s leader being successfully targeted. Already known for his extreme paranoia, he may be sleeping a little less soundly these days.

But, always mindful of the political implications, Putin also saw the sudden economic windfall as an opportunity to solidify his bargaining position in the talks with Ukraine and its allies. On Saturday, Bloomberg News had reported that, according to people familiar with the matter, Russian officials were still expressing little interest in continuing the U.S.-led peace talks unless Kyiv was prepared to give up the disputed territory.

Then on Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had this to say:

“We have our own interests that we must protect, and it is in our interests to continue these negotiations. We certainly remain open to these negotiations” . . . adding that “a political and diplomatic resolution” was Moscow’s preferred means of ending the war. [Dmitry Antonov, Felix Light and Lucy Papachristou, Reuters, March 2, 2026.]

Asked specifically whether the strikes on Iran would affect the Ukraine peace process, Peskov said that, while they valued the U.S. efforts, Moscow trusted itself “first and foremost,” and would protect its own interests. [Id.]

So there we have it: yet another indirect gift from Trump to Putin, this time by way of Iran. With money in the bank, Russia can continue to “negotiate” — or stall — as long as it takes to wear Ukraine down. And with their big new pile of chips, they’re suddenly ready and willing to return to the table.

It just gets better and better.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
3/3/26