Okay, this is no longer funny. What started out looking like a Keystone Kops movie is now beginning to reveal itself as a frightening scenario involving multiple countries in Eastern Europe, Western Europe . . . and even in Africa. Yevgeny Prigozhin is not Charlie Chaplin’s lovable “Little Tramp.” He is amoral and unpredictable. So what’s next? How thinly will his Wagner Group spread themselves, and why? Who’s really behind it all? What’s real and what’s a diversionary tactic? What is their game, and how do we counter it?

Once again, I’m loaded with questions, but short of answers. So let’s just look at some of the possible scenarios.

Let’s see, now . . . When last reported, barely a week ago, the elusive Mr. Prigozhin had popped up in St. Petersburg on the margins of the Russia-Africa Summit meeting. And today? Well, that’s anybody’s guess. Still in Russia? Back to Belarus? Maybe up to mischief in Niger? Surely, someone must know.

But some of his Wagner Group troublemakers, supposedly “exiled” to Belarus, have been spotted training Belarusian military troops in the art of war. Oooh . . . this cannot be good. And this obviously troublesome turn of events in itself raises further possibilities. The first — in line with an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington think tank — suggests that this may indicate a move on the part of Belarusian President Lukashenko away from Putin’s sphere of control and toward a greater level of independence, military and otherwise. And that may be absolutely correct. But my tendency to question everything about this situation leads me to wonder whether Lukashenko is that bold and that foolish? Even with the support of a few hundred (or more) Wagner mercenaries, is he really in a position to oppose Putin, either politically or militarily? And if this is his purpose, is it his own idea, or is he being manipulated by Prigozhin — who is still smarting from the failure of his own attempted revolt against Russia’s military — into believing that together they can succeed?

So what else might we be seeing? I’m thinking: exactly the opposite. What if the “Wagnerians” are not truly in exile, but have been relocated to Belarus by Putin specifically for the purpose of building up the local army in preparation for a further Russian invasion of Ukraine from the north? Or even — in the worst-case scenario — is it all the better to position Russia in Belarus for a foray into Poland, through the Suwalki Gap to Russia’s strategically-located territory at Kaliningrad, and possibly even from there into neighboring Lithuania? Could this whole thing be the first of a series of far-reaching chess moves on the part of Russia itself?

And then there’s Africa: Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic, where Prigozhin’s presence has already been felt. How many trained people does Wagner have? And how many places can they cover at one time? Is one of these moves a red herring — or as they say in Russian, a “distracting maneuver” — to draw NATO’s attention away from the other? In other words: What the hell is really going on?

Please note that I have yet again ended with a question. I stress that I am not an historian, not a political or military pundit, not even an investigative journalist. I am merely an observer with a keen interest in international affairs, and specifically — especially these days — Russian affairs. A keen interest, and a whole lot of questions. Let’s hope we get the right answers, and soon.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
8/4/23