“Putin and the Houthis” may sound like a good name for a rock group; but what it really signifies is major trouble in the Middle East — as though that region needs any more excuses to explode.
From video released by Houthi militants, showing attack on a tanker in the Red Sea. (Photo from Wall Street Journal)
The fact is that Russia is now threatening to arm Yemen’s Houthi militants with advanced anti-ship missiles, purportedly in retaliation for the United States’ o.k.-ing Ukrainian strikes inside Russia with U.S. weapons.
Yet Vladimir Putin — again ignoring the fact that he invaded Ukraine, and not the other way around — sees no problem with helping this terrorist organization to achieve its goals, thereby exacerbating an already horrific situation in a region on the verge of self-destructing.
And he still thinks we’ll believe him when he presents himself as the ultimate peacemaker. Really, Vlad??!!!
Yes, again. Only this time it’s not just one, but several prisoners, removed from sight without warning or explanation. And they’re not American or other foreign hostages, but Russians, all imprisoned for “criticizing the military” or for their previous work with the late Alexei Navalny.
Ilya Yashin
It came to light today when Tatyana Solomina, the attorney for Ilya Yashin, reported on the Telegram messaging app that her client has been moved from the prison in which he has been serving an 8-1/2-year sentence for criticizing Russia’s war in Ukraine, to an “unknown destination.” Her statement provided no further details.
It was noted, however, that several other Russian political prisoners have also been moved. Three of those named — Oleg Orlov, Lilia Chanysheva and Ksenia Fadeyeva — are already on my list of Putin’s hostages, as is Ilya Yashin himself.
Oleg Orlov
A fifth person — artist/musician Aleksandra Skochilenko — is new to me; she is serving seven years for “replacing price tags in a supermarket with messages decrying civilian deaths in Ukraine.” [Jim Heintz, Associated Press, July 30, 2024.]
Aleksandra Skochilenko
And convicted of a different category of crime is German-born Russian citizen Kevin Liik, sentenced to four years for allegedly providing information to German special services — also removed from his prison. [Associated Press, id.]
There has been speculation on social media as to whether this might indicate a possible forthcoming prisoner swap. But with whom, and for whom? Prisoner exchanges are generally made between countries, as in the case of American basketball star Brittney Griner being traded for Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout. But here we have six Russian citizens. For whom would they be traded, and where would they go after being released? Or does this activity have nothing whatsoever to do with an exchange? Then what?
The Exchange
If these six are to be released, why them, and why now? Could the whole thing be a public relations ploy — a small concession to show the world what a good-hearted guy Vladimir Putin is? Is it part of a psychological game designed to keep everyone guessing? Or is it simply a routine shuffling of the prison population?
There are far too many unanswered questions here, and — as I seem to be saying so often of late — we can only wait, and hope for the best. In Russia, it is never wise to jump to conclusions.
Viktor Orban is now in the business of predicting the future.
Oh, sorry … this is a portrait of the actual Nostradamus.This is Viktor Orban
I have written much about Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, of late (see particularly, “The Return of the Habsburgs” – 7/26/24). He has been busily assembling a group of like-minded European leaders — all fellow members of the EU, and all but Austria also NATO members — in an alliance he calls “Patriots for Europe.” Briefly, he appears to be reestablishing the Habsburg Empire, in a 21st Century version.
And it is most significant that Orban and his colleagues — including Robert Fico, Prime Minister of Slovakia — are avowed admirers of Vladimir Putin, to whom Orban has been trying to sell himself as the guy who can settle the “conflict” (i.e., the war) in Ukraine.
Now he is stepping forward to reinvent himself once again, this time as the all-seeing prognosticator whose visions of the future world — the one to which we are now allegedly headed — will create an alternative path, one that will prevent a universal disaster and build a more “hyperrational” world.
A world with Asia and Russia as its core.
The Personification of “Hyperrationality”
What does he foresee? Well, for openers:
He predicts that Ukraine will never be able to become a member of NATO or the EU.
In a speech before ethnic Hungarians in neighboring Romania, he predicts that, “In the next long decades, maybe centuries, Asia will be the dominant centre of the world,” specifically naming China, India, Pakistan and Indonesia as the world’s future great powers. [Reuters, July 27, 2024.]
(Sorry, Viktor, but Nostradamus — the real one — beat you to that prediction centuries ago.)
And then he switches from forecasting to the blame game:
“And we Westerners pushed the Russians into this bloc as well.” He declared that the West was “weak,” and that Russia’s position in world affairs was “rational and predictable.” He praised Russia for its ability to adapt to Western sanctions, and then inexplicably added:
“The strongest international appeal of Russian soft power is its opposition to LGBTQ.” [Reuters, id.]
Well, that’s setting us straight . . . so to speak.
*. *. *
When I said previously that Orban’s voice was one not to be ignored, I now believe I was seriously understating the case.
On July 22nd, just over a week ago, I told the story of Rico Krieger, a German citizen who had been arrested in Belarus, tried, and convicted on six charges including “acts of terrorism.”
And sentenced to death.
Rico Krieger
And three days ago, the story appeared of his apparent “confession” to having planted explosives near a railway line.
Rico Krieger, “Confessing”
In a 16-minute, obviously “heavily choreographed” interview, there is no evidence presented to support the charges. Krieger states that he was acting on instructions from Ukraine; again, no proof is offered. He then appeals — in tears — to the German government for help “before it is too late.” [Sarah Rainsford, BBC News, July 26, 2024.]
From the beginning, this had all the earmarks of a hostage-for-trade situation, possibly created on behalf of the Russian government. Vladimir Putin has already made it known that he is desirous of arranging a swap for one of his paid assassins — one Vadim Krasikov —serving a life sentence for murder . . . in Germany, of all places. What an amazing coincidence! And it has thus far been impossible to work out a three-way arrangement with Germany and the U.S., using one of Putin’s American hostages — possibly Evan Gershkovich or Paul Whelan, or even both — as bait.
How convenient, then, to have a German hostage, thus eliminating the U.S. as middleman in the negotiations. And with a death sentence hanging over Mr. Krieger, the matter becomes even more urgent.
Putin must be desperate to get Krasikov back in Moscow. And if he can gain an added advantage by throwing some blame at Ukraine . . . well, it’s two birds with one stone.
And with his loyal ally, Aleksandr Lukashenko, in Belarus to lend a hand, he may just have found a way.
Meeting in Tokyo – July 28, 2024 U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (2d from left) and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (3d from left)
No, not this group. This was a meeting of the minds — the minds of allies Japan and the United States — in Tokyo yesterday, where discussions of U.S.-Japan relations included a focus on enlarging and modernizing their military coordination in the face of looming threats from China.
The joint statement issued at the conclusion of the meeting — which included U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, and Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Defense Minister Minoru Kihara — clarified the convergence of Washington’s and Tokyo’s views on China, characterizing that country as “the ‘greatest strategic challenge’ in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.” [CNN’s Meanwhile in China, July 29, 2024.]
And then the fun began:
China (from Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian): “Japan and the United States keep saying that they want to promote regional peace and security and maintain a rules-based international order. In fact, they form cliques, engage in small circles, manipulate group politics, and create camp confrontations.”
U.S.-Japan (in Joint Statement): Repeated mention of Beijing’s “intensifying attempts to unilaterally change the status quo [and its] threatening and provocative activities in the South China Sea, [and its] support for Russia’s defense industrial base.”
China (Lin Jian again): “[The joint statement] disregards facts, reverses right and wrong, and maliciously attacks China’s foreign policy … and exaggerates and stirs up China’s threat.”
China (today): Lin said further that China is “a builder of world peace [and a] defender of international order,” while actions from the U.S. and Japan are the “real challenges facing regional peace, security and stability.”
[Quotes from CNN, id.]
“You did it!” “No, you did it first!”
*. *. *
Earlier today I spoke about the joint China-Russia air “exercises” over the Bering Sea on Alaska’s doorstep. That was obviously just the tip of the proverbial iceberg that is the current status of U.S.-China relations. It’s a sad reminder of the late 1970s, when the two countries were able to establish diplomatic and trade relations that lasted to mutual advantage for the past four decades.
Where are Henry Kissinger and — yes, even Richard Nixon — when you really need them? Oh, right . . . they’ve passed on. And their successors? We shall see. But it seems, in all areas of domestic politics and international diplomacy, that the era of the great statesman has also passed.
. . . and you’d have to be living in a mole hole to avoid it . . .
There are some things you can do to elevate your mood — or at least your level of tolerance.
No, I do not recommend getting falling-down-making-a-total-ass-of-yourself drunk. The hangover isn’t worth it, the booze is expensive, and who knows what kind of trouble you’ll get into while your brain is somewhere else.
But you might . . .
Oh, now, that looks heavenly. It only lasts an hour, and it’s not cheap, but oh! What an hour that is!
Of course, there’s always . . .
The primal scream. It works best under a couple of pillows, where no one else has to be subjected to your attempt at reaching high-C. But the bathtub works well too.
And I’ve always found refuge in . . .
The “shop-‘til-you-drop” method of mood enhancement. It usually lifts my spirits . . . until the credit card bill arrives.
*. *. *
My choice today, however, is the one that’s always worked best for me when I’m unhappy, upset, bored, frustrated, or lonely. It’s not expensive, and we’re really in luck today because it is both . . .
National Lasagna Day, and
National Chicken Wing Day!
And I see no reason why you can’t have both at one meal, and more. Would you like fries with that?
Now, if you’re thinking that just one day of gluttony isn’t enough to relieve you of the weight of the world on your shoulders, your luck is holding. Because tomorrow, July 30th, is also National Cheesecake Day. Dessert!
*. *. *
So take your pick of therapies, and if you’re so inclined, meet me in the kitchen. Who cares about calories if the world is about to blow up anyway?
Well, that doesn’t sound like much fun at all. And it isn’t.
When War Seemed Like Fun
Back on June 3rd, I wrote about a new kind of war being waged between the North and South Koreans: a balloon war. But not hot air balloons, and not water balloons. These were garbage balloons — filled with all sorts of filthy, disgusting, potentially contaminated waste materials, and being lobbed by the hundreds from North Korea into the South, allegedly in retaliation for the floaters that had been finding their way in the opposite direction for some years, delivering anti-North Korean propaganda leaflets. Just paper. In an earlier statement, Kim Yo Jong, the influential sister of North Korea’s President Kim Jong Un, referred to them as “dirty leaflets.”
Cleaning Up North Korea’s Garbage in Seoul, South Korea
So the Kim regime — never to be willingly bested — decided to “out-dirty” the South with their own balloons. But these — more than 3,000 of them just since May of this year — contained the likes of cigarette butts, discarded batteries, and even manure. Now, that’s dirty.
In response — and this is where the story begins to sound a bit like an episode of M*A*S*H — the South Koreans have been bombarding the folks in the North with loudspeaker broadcasts of propaganda along the demilitarized zone, as well as entertainment such as K-pop songs (which are anathema to the straight-laced Northerners). That truly sounds like Hawkeye Pierce and B.J. Hunnicutt vs. Charles Emerson Winchester III, making life interesting at the M*A*S*H 4077th.
K-pop: The Ultimate Weapon
But in real life, it’s not so funny. Someone has to clean up the mess, which is not only expensive, but presents a possible health hazard. While thus far no toxic materials appear to have been found, precautions still must be taken. Who knows when you might be standing under the next trash dump? The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) have cautioned the public not to touch the balloons, and to report any they find to the proper authorities.
In an earlier statement, the JCS had said: “North Korea’s actions clearly violate international law and seriously threaten the safety of our citizens. All responsibility arising from the North Korean balloons lies entirely with North Korea, and we sternly warn North Korea to immediately stop its inhumane and low-level actions.”
From the North, Kim Yo Jong has issued a “stern warning”: “It seems that the situation we cannot overlook is coming,” and further stating that there would be “a gruesome and dear price” to pay that could change the South’s “mode of counteraction” with the North. [Yoonjung Seo and Brad Lendon, CNN, July 24, 2024.] Sounds like an “or else” to me.
President Kim Jong Un and his sister, Kim Yo Jong (a.k.a. “the Enforcer”)
In the meantime, North Korea has also continued to express its displeasure (to put it mildly) with the military drills being held by the United States and South Korea on the Korean peninsula, the latest being the deployment of U.S. Marine Corps fighter jets to Suwon Air Base for joint aerial training this week. [CNN, id.] There seems to be a great deal of displeasure in the Kim household this week.
*. *. *
And while we try to sort out the possible ramifications of Korea’s ongoing trash wars, consider this: No peace treaty was ever signed between the North and South following the end of the Korean War in 1953. Technically, the two countries are still at war.
Let’s hope they continue to limit their battles to balloons and K-pop.
Just sayin’ . . .
Brendochka 7/29/24
P.S. And both sides should keep in mind that things could always be worse. See what happened this week in a neighborhood of Seattle, Washington:
While Europe and the Middle East have dominated the international news of late, it hasn’t been all quiet on the Far Eastern front either. Though Japan, Thailand and Singapore still provide idyllic destinations for the vacationer seeking the beauty and historic charm of Asian cultures, we can’t ignore the rumblings and grumblings of those nearby totalitarian twins, China and North Korea.
We’ve all been aware of China’s designs on Taiwan; their air “exercises” perilously close to Japan; and now, a joint “exercise” with Russia in the skies overlooking — but wisely not entering the air space of — Alaska. And that, for the edification of the geographically challenged, is in the United States of America.
Oh-oh.
Photo from Russian Defense Ministry Video – July 25, 2024
When you poke a hornet’s nest — in this case, the U.S. — you’d better have an escape plan. Because those hornets, while generally happy to be encased peacefully in their nest, do not take kindly to being poked. And when aroused . . . well . . . you can imagine.
So I present to you the ultimate anti-poking device: The U.S. Air Force B-2 Stealth Bomber.
China’s Worst Nightmare?
And this is not just any old bomber. This one — or its twin — was part of the world’s largest naval drills recently held off the coast of Kauai, Hawaii, in which it proved its ability to take out a decommissioned amphibious assault ship (the USS TARAWA) with a single, inexpensive guided bomb.
Kaboom!
Analysts have called this a “very significant” factor in any hypothetical future conflict between China and the United States. China has long relied on the size of its navy (the world’s largest), its stock of thousands of missiles on the Chinese mainland, and its ability to provide air cover to its ships from land-based aircraft. But analysts have said that the B-2 could negate some of China’s advantages with its long-range fire capability. [Brad Lendon, CNN, July 27, 2024.]
According to a U.S. Air Force website, arming these bombers with relatively inexpensive, effective, precision-guided bombs with warheads of up to 2,000 pounds “could give the Air Force bombers the ‘anti-ship lethality’ of a submarine-launched torpedo without the liabilities of a submarine.” [CNN, id.]
Two GBU-31 Joint Direct Attack Munitions
Following the U.S. air exercise, a press release from the U.S. Navy’s Third Fleet said: “This capability is an answer to an urgent need to quickly neutralize maritime threats over massive expanses of ocean around the world at minimal costs.” [CNN, id.]
That’s good news for the free world. For China, well . . . let’s call it a cautionary tale.
So, President Xi, I hope you’re paying attention. The United States — in fact, the entire civilized world — wants peace. We do not want war. We will do everything within our power to avoid it. Seriously, who wants to be exterminated? But that does not mean we are sitting idly by while you bully and threaten and shake your fists at us. For your own sake, and for the sake of the entire world, please don’t ever underestimate our capabilities, or our determination.
Just sayin’ . . .
Brendochka 7/29/24
NOTE: Comments on events in North Korea are coming up in a separate post, later today. Stay tuned . . .
The Blog About Everything … and Sometimes Nothing 