Well, I was wrong. But so were the experts this time.

Most people anticipated that Donald Trump would follow up on yesterday’s White House meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky by calling Russian President Vladimir Putin immediately afterward. We did not imagine his talking to Putin first, ahead of the meeting.

In fact, however, that is what transpired. Trump wrote on Truth Social on October 16th that the phone conversation had already taken place — at Putin’s instigation — and said:

“We agreed that there will be a meeting of our High Level Advisors, next week . . . President Putin and I will then meet in an agreed upon location, Budapest, Hungary. . . . to see if we can bring this ‘inglorious’ War, between Russia and Ukraine, to an end.” [RFE/RL, October 16, 2025.]

Was I surprised at this? Actually, no . . . not surprised. I was flabbergasted!

We may never know precisely what was discussed between Trump and Putin, since neither of their versions is likely to be complete or reliable. But we do know, after the fact, that Trump is no longer hedging as to whether the U.S. will be supplying Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles. The answer is a flat-out nyet — at least for now.

But the possibility has been left open for the future, likely as a cudgel to be held over Putin’s head pending the proposed bilateral summit in Budapest. According to Ilan Berman, Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council, leaving the issue open-ended is significant:

“The question now is whether it’s possible for the White House to put together a package of sticks that Russia will really respond to in a way that it hasn’t before. And I think that’s where the Tomahawks come in. My sense is that’s sort of what is animating the thinking. But I think both the president and his advisers are far less optimistic about Vladimir Putin being a constructive actor than they were six months ago.” [Ray Furlong, RFE/RL, October 18, 2025 CET.]

We are talking about the same Vladimir Putin, aren’t we?

Because it’s going to take some mighty big sticks to convince this Putin to give up any of his demands.

And there is this post from Trump on social media following his talk with Putin, in which — for perhaps the hundredth time — he said he believes “great progress was made with today’s telephone conversation,” and added:

“President Putin congratulated me and the United States on the Great Accomplishment of Peace in the Middle East, something that, he said, has been dreamed of for centuries. I actually believe that the Success in the Middle East will help in our negotiation in attaining an end to the War with Russia/Ukraine.” [Samantha Waldenberg, CNN, October 16, 2025.]

And when he had stopped patting himself on the back, he went on:

“We also spent a great deal of time talking about Trade between Russia and the United States when the War with Ukraine is over.” [Id.] [Bold emphasis is mine.]

And there it is — one big, fat, bright orange carrot on a stick for Vlad: Money.

In addition, Putin has — by means of a single phone call — once again bought himself a bit of time. We now await word as to the final arrangements for a bilateral meeting in Budapest . . . or anywhere. Even Trump indicated some uncertainty as to whether Putin was simply delaying again, though he didn’t say how long he will wait this time before once more losing patience.

And in the meantime, Ukraine prepares for another long, cold, desperate winter.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
10/18/25