As we head into Monday and the scheduled meeting in the Washington White House with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, there is a bit of good news and some additional promising news.

First, the good news: It was revealed yesterday that the meeting will be attended by several European leaders, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer [CNN, August 17, 2025] . . . thus providing a much-needed layer of sanity to the discussions, and hopefully preventing a repeat of the notorious verbal attack on Zelensky by Donald Trump and JD Vance in the same spot last February.

As for the promising news, whether it will come to fruition will depend entirely upon Vladimir Putin’s follow-through on what was reportedly said in Friday’s meeting in Alaska.

According to White House special envoy Steve Witkoff, Putin agreed at that summit to allow the U.S. and our European allies to offer Ukraine a security guarantee similar to NATO’s Article 5 protection* in exchange for Russia’s promise to “not go after any other European countries and violate their sovereignty . . . [and] plenty more.“ [Jill Colvin, John Leicester and Samya Kullab, Associated Press, August 17, 2025.]

* Article 5 of the NATO Treaty provides for mutual protection, i.e., an attack against one or more NATO member nations will be considered an attack against all NATO members.

While this represents a hopeful sign from the Russian side, it is too soon to begin celebrating, as there is some distance to go before any sort of peace agreement is reached. And there is the matter of what Putin will demand in exchange for such a concession. But Witkoff said, “We began to see some moderation in the way they’re thinking about getting to a final peace deal.” [Id.]

The big question remains: Is Putin weakening?

Secretary of State Marco Rubio was more cautious in his approach to this development. Speaking on three Sunday news programs, he said:

“We made progress in the sense that we identified potential areas of agreement, but there remains [sic] some big areas of disagreement. So we’re still a long ways off.” [Id.]

And Witkoff confirmed:

“I think everybody agreed that we had made progress. Maybe not enough for a peace deal, but we are on the path for the first time. The fundamental issue, which is some sort of land swap, which is obviously ultimately in the control of the Ukrainians — that could not have been discussed at this meeting [with Putin]. We intend to discuss it on Monday. Hopefully we have some clarity on it and hopefully that ends up in a peace deal very, very soon.” [Id.]

Again, while there appears to be a ray of hope, today’s meeting in the Oval Office will certainly be influenced by the way in which Ukraine views Moscow’s apparent shift in position. And since Putin is still insistent on holding a large swath of territory in eastern Ukraine, there is likely to be considerable push-back from Zelensky.

Also, we must never lose sight of the fact that Vladimir Putin is not what one could characterize as a reliable or reasonable adversary. He is wily, mercurial, and completely untrustworthy. What he said on Friday, he can easily disavow tomorrow, depending on what he hears from Zelensky today . . . and we could find ourselves back at square one. Hopefully, that won’t happen.

And there is also the lingering uncertainty as to whose side Donald Trump will take. In one breath, he asserts his continuing support for Ukraine’s defense; while in the next, he gushes over the importance of increasing trade relations with his old friend Vladimir.

All things considered, I’m going to play it safe and hold off on making any predictions for the time being. But I’ll be back after the White House meeting.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
8/18/25