When I woke up this morning — actually, it was early afternoon — my first thought was, “Oh, crap! Another day of more of the same.”

But even in my current morose frame of mind, it seems that I can’t turn away from the important news, and especially tomorrow’s summit meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska. (That’s Alaska, U.S.A. — not Russia — in case Trump still doesn’t remember. Let’s hope his pilot knows the difference.)

And I hate leaving anything unfinished, so here I am, tapping away at my keyboard once more to continue the countdown to the summit.

Today’s reports have brought nothing earthshaking. Before leaving Moscow, Putin met with members of his negotiating team, which includes Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (no surprise there), to brief them on “how the negotiation process on the Ukrainian crisis is going.” He is quoted as having said:

“The current American administration … is making, in my opinion, quite energetic and sincere efforts to stop the hostilities, stop the crisis and reach agreements that are of interest to all parties involved in this conflict.” [Christian Edwards, Anna Chernova, CNN, August 14, 2025.]

He also said that an aim of the summit is to “create long-term conditions for peace between our countries, as well as in Europe, and in the world as a whole,” and that such a broader peace would be possible if, in the “next stages” of Russian-U.S. talks, “we reach agreements in the area of control over strategic offensive weapons.” [Id.]

Trump, on the other hand, is still focused on making a “deal.” Taking time for a broadcast on Fox Radio’s Brian Kilmeade Show, he said today:

“I believe now he’s (Putin is] convinced that he’s going to make a deal. He’s going to make a deal. I think he’s going to.” [Id.]

He also spoke about a possible second meeting — what he called “the more important meeting” — to include himself, Putin, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, “and maybe we’ll bring some of the European leaders along, maybe not.” [Id.]

While Putin is focused on “next stages” and “long-term conditions,” Trump said the aim of the talks is “to end the war.” [RFE/RL, August 14, 2025.]

Russian foreign policy aide and former Ambassador to the U.S. Yuri Ushakov added a few more details. He said that Putin and Trump would first have a one-on-one conversation, with interpreters, to be followed by a business lunch to focus on the war in Ukraine, as well as the prospects of cooperation between Russia and the U.S. in trade and economic matters. This would be followed by a joint Putin-Trump press conference.

But Trump wasn’t as clear on the follow-up to his one-on-one meeting with Putin. He said that there would be a press conference, but whether it would be joint or solo was undecided. He also said:

“Depending on what happens with my meeting, I’m going to be calling up President Zelenskyy, and let’s get him over to wherever we’re going to meet. The second meeting is going to be very, very important, because that’s going to be a meeting where they make a deal. And I don’t want to use the word ‘divvy things up,’ but you know, to a certain extent, it’s not a bad term, OK?” [CNN, op.cit.]

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It is tricky, at the best of times, to predict what either of these two mercurial, Machiavellian individuals might do or say. But putting them together, mano a mano, in a closed room, in a high-stakes situation that will have a domino effect on the entire world . . . well, any attempt at prognostication would seem foolish at best.

But I said I would be going out on a limb, and so I shall . . . to a limited extent. My take on what was reported today is basically unchanged from what I have been saying all along.

First, Putin’s demands will have remained unchanged. He will reiterate his claim on Ukrainian territory presently occupied by his troops; his insistence on demilitarization of Ukraine and denial of membership in NATO; and possibly an early scheduling of a presidential election in Ukraine.

But based on comments out of Moscow today, I also see him tempting Trump with the kind of deal that would be irresistible to a lifelong dealmaker: the prospect of increased trade relations between Russia and the U.S., and a strategic arms rapprochement that would look awfully good on Trump’s c.v. when it comes before the Nobel Committee.

With those two carrots on the stick being dangled by Putin, will Trump be able to adhere to his promises of being tough on Russia and fair to Ukraine? Or will he define “fair” — as he has already hinted — as a “divvying up” of Ukrainian territory?

Trump may believe he can look into an adversary’s eyes and understand exactly what is going on in their mind. But Vladimir Putin’s eyes give nothing away; they are cold, emotionless, unreadable. And his mind, if possible, is even more devious than Trump’s.

Trump also says that, if he is not satisfied with Putin’s offer tomorrow, he may just “walk away.” But I doubt that will happen; it would be an admission of failure. If anyone were to walk away, it would be Putin — and not in defeat, but placing the onus on Trump for having failed to accept Russia’s peace offering.

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So . . . going out on that very shaky limb . . . I predict that Trump will emerge with some sort of a deal to present to Zelensky. But I don’t think it will be what he, or the rest of Europe, wants to hear. Needless to say, I hope I’m wrong.

Tomorrow will tell.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
8/14/25