They have a somewhat symbiotic relationship: the leader of one of the world’s most powerful autocracies and the presumptive president (if you believe the “official” results of the last election) of one of its much smaller neighbors.

Belarus, ruled by the tyrannical Aleksandr Lukashenko, relies on Russia both militarily and economically; while Russia’s Vladimir Putin is happy to have a staging ground on Ukraine’s northern border from which to launch some of his invasions, and where his wounded troops and repatriated POWs can be evacuated for treatment.

Otherwise, Lukashenko has kept his nose out of Putin’s war; no Belarusian troops have been sent to fight in Ukraine. But recently-revealed figures show that since 2022, when Putin launched his initial foray into Ukrainian territory, Belarus’ government spending on military-related items has grown more than 2-1/2 times. [RFE/RL, July 19, 2025.]

According to public budget and procurement documents, the country’s 2025 budget for all defense spending now totals around US$1.6 billion, or some 2% of the country’s GDP — up from US$694 million, or 0.95% of GDP, in 2022. Included in the purchases are advanced Sukhoi Su-30SM2 multirole fighter jets, Mi-35M attack helicopters, and Volat V-2 armored personnel carriers, in addition to hundreds of attack drones. [Id.]

All of this has happened at a time when Belarus is already facing severe economic strain. Exports of oil and oil-related products are down, and the country’s once-thriving tech industry has been decimated as a result of repressive policies. Social welfare spending, on the other hand, has increased due to Belarus’ aging population.

Belarusian economist Alis Ryzhichenka says that:

“As a percentage of budget expenditures, the most goes to social policies. . . . [But now] defense is catching up with this part of expenditures. And given that budget operates on a deficit, then there’s nowhere you can increase. We need to reduce the social security, or something else, in order to add to the defense budget.” [Id.]

So who is the bogeyman that has Lukashenko so worried? According to Uladzimer Zhyhar, an activist with BYPOL, a group comprised of former Belarusian police and law enforcement officers, “Lukashenko’s system fully relies on the Kremlin for its defense.” [Id.]

But Ivan Kirichevskiy, a military analyst with the Ukraine-based online magazine Defense Express, has said:

“Paradoxically, the level of Belarus’s military spending suggests that despite flirting with with Putin, Lukashenko does not particularly … expect that the Russian army will come and defend him, in case of a mythical NATO aggression. I would even say that the Belarusian army now has only one enemy: the Russian army.” [Id.]

So which is it? Does Lukashenko really believe Putin’s propaganda that they are in danger from attack by nearby NATO countries? Or is he finally coming to the realization that his friend and protector, Vladimir Putin, can never be trusted . . . and that Belarus might, in the not-so-distant future, meet the same fate as Ukraine?

Whatever his reasoning, it’s just one more headache for Europe.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
7/22/25