It’s been a bad couple of days in Russia.

First came two bridge collapses in the western part of the country, not far from the borders with Ukraine and Belarus. The first bridge — in the Bryansk region — together with the vehicles that had been crossing it, collapsed onto a train passing below, killing at least eight people en route to Moscow on May 31st. Initial reports said that the collapse was caused by “illegal interference,” but offered no further details.

In the second incident — in the Kursk region, just 90 km. from Bryansk — a railway bridge collapsed as a freight train was crossing it around 3:00 a.m. on June 1st.

And then came Ukraine’s massive drone attack, knocking out about a third of Russia’s fleet of strategic long-range bombers.

And all of it on the heels of a failed negotiation in Istanbul on May 16th and a fruitless two-hour phone call between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump on May 19th. Putin “offered” another meeting to be held in Istanbul today, June 2nd, and said he would submit a “memorandum” of issues to be discussed at that meeting . . .

. . . to which Trump, ever compliant to Putin’s wishes, agreed.

*. *. *

Well, the two weeks have passed; no presentation has been forthcoming from Moscow; and delegations from Russia and Ukraine met today in Istanbul as scheduled.

First, the good news: Another major prisoner exchange was agreed, involving “at least 1,000” from each side, according to Russia’s delegation leader, Vladimir Medinsky. His Ukrainian counterpart, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, said the two sides had agreed to “exchange all-for-all seriously wounded and seriously sick prisoners of war. The second category is young soldiers who are from 18 to 25 years old — all-for-all.” [RFE/RL, June 2, 2025.]

But what about peace talks, or at least ceasefire negotiations?

In a meeting that lasted just over an hour, with talking points being provided by each side only in the last moments before the meeting, it was not surprising to hear from Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman Oncu Keceli:

“The meeting is over. It didn’t end negatively.” [Id.]

But it didn’t end positively, either. Following yesterday’s massive attacks on Russia’s airfields, one might have expected Putin’s delegation to show at least a hint of humility, perhaps even an indication that they might be considering some concessions. On the other hand, the magnitude and the unexpected nature of those attacks will have taken Kremlin officials completely by surprise, giving them no time to assess the damage, much less to formulate a response.

The U.S. State Department has said that, on the day before the meeting — the day of the drone attacks in Russia — Secretary of State Marco Rubio had spoken by phone with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov . . . at Lavrov’s request.

The nature of their discussion has not been reported. But if I were a betting woman, I might be willing to wager that some agreement was reached between them to put further negotiations on hold until Moscow could catch its collective breath . . . thus explaining the brevity of the meeting and its ending in a very positive prisoner swap agreement, but nothing more.

Of course, there is the question of what will happen when the Kremlin has had time to fully process these developments. In the best-case scenario, Putin — always unpredictable — could react rationally, realize that his position has been somewhat weakened, and finally begin to negotiate in earnest. Or he could do what he and every autocrat throughout history have always done: let his megalomania and his temper get the upper hand, and escalate the fight.

This is also the moment for the U.S. and European leaders to consider — and perhaps reconsider — their next moves.

All of which reinforces my decision, made many years ago, not to go into show business, politics, or diplomacy. It’s much more comfortable out here in the audience.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
6/2/25