Finland has been shoring up its defenses for some time now.

And this week, Germany — for the first time since the end of World War II — deployed a permanent military brigade outside its borders, this time to Lithuania. It was not an invasion; it was an action taken in support of the Baltic nation against any possible military incursion by Russia. As German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said at the inaugural ceremony in Vilnius, “the security of our Baltic allies is also our security.” [Astha Rajvanshi, NBC News, May 23, 2025.]

He added that, since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, “Russia’s aggressive revisionism” could indicate an intent to redraw the larger map of Europe, and not just Ukraine. [Id.]

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda added that both Russia and Belarus have already begun conducting military exercises on his nation’s border. [Id.]

Which is terrifyingly reminiscent of those weeks prior to February 24, 2022, as the world watched Russian forces building — in what they still insistently refer to as a “special military operation” — on the eastern border of Ukraine. And we all know how that has turned out.

The three Baltic nations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are geographically the most vulnerable European countries to a future expansionist move by Russia, as they share borders with Russia itself as well as its staunch ally Belarus, and are only connected to a NATO ally — Poland — by way of the narrow Suwalki Gap.

Now, with Donald Trump finally — after three years of devastating death and destruction — realizing that his promise to end the war in Ukraine in a matter of days was never anything more than a self-serving pipe dream, Europe is preparing itself for the worst-case scenario. Will it happen? No one knows for sure. But it would be foolhardy — possibly even suicidal — to sit idly by, just waiting to see what comes next.

So the European allies are doing what they must do: they are arming, and giving fair warning to Vladimir Putin. As Chancellor Merz said, “Anyone who threatens an ally must know that the entire alliance will jointly defend every inch of NATO territory.” [Id.]

*. *. *

Following the May 19th call between Trump and Putin, which accomplished a much-desired prisoner swap but made absolutely no progress toward even a minimum ceasefire negotiation, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) issued a summary report. It stated, among other things, that:

“Russia reportedly continues to expand its military infrastructure along its border with Finland and Estonia, likely in preparation for future aggression against NATO.” And further, that “Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka.” [Christina Harward, et al., ISW, May 19, 2025.]

The report concluded that certain actions on the part of Russia were essential to the progress of substantive negotiations:

• “Russia must explicitly acknowledge the legitimacy of the Ukrainian president, government, and constitution and Ukraine’s sovereignty in order to engage in meaningful, good-faith negotiations.”
• “Russia must agree that ceasefire negotiations must precede peace settlement negotiations.”
• “Russia must show its willingness to make concessions of its own in any future bilateral negotiations, especially as the Kremlin appears to be setting conditions to expand its list of demands amid the peace talks.” [Id.]
  

As logical and reasonable as their recommendations are, we all know there isn’t a snowball’s chance in Hell of Putin ever delivering any of those concessions . . . he has already made that abundantly clear as he has stalled, teased, lied, and blasted his way through more than three years of war.

And why? Because he has no intention of backing off . . . ever. He wants Ukraine; and that is only the first move of his long-term game plan. One of his principal delaying tactics is his ludicrous argument that Volodymyr Zelensky is not the legitimate president of Ukraine, and thus any negotiations with him would allegedly be useless. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told BBC’’s Russia editor Steve Rosenberg on Friday, when asked whether Russia would sit down and sign a peace agreement with President Zelensky:

“You’re putting the cart before the horse. First we need to have a deal. When it’s agreed, then we will decide. But, as President Putin has said many times, President Zelensky does not have legitimacy . . . Probably the best option would be new elections . . .” [Steve Rosenberg, BBC, May 23, 2025.]

And, as if that weren’t enough, Russia’s Kremlin-controlled media have chimed in with the following:

• From Izvestia: “Russia has won the latest round of global poker.”
• From Kommersant: “Donald Trump’s stance couldn’t be more advantageous to Moscow. In effect he backed Russia’s position of ‘Talks first, ceasefire later’ and refused to strengthen sanctions against Russia.”
• From a social scientist, as told to Kommersant: “Donald Trump, at least for now, is our ideological partner on certain issues. His views are much closer to Russia’s than to Europe’s.”
• Finally — and most significantly, so please read this one carefully — from Komsomolskaya Pravda to Europe’s leaders: “You were warned. Don’t wave threats and ultimatums in the face of the bear. Don’t try to impose conditions in talks that have nothing to do with you. Just sit in the lobby and breathe in the smell of the new world order.” [Id.]
  

“The new world order” . . . Putin’s ultimate goal. And Donald Trump, in all of his gold-plated ineptness, has played right into the Russian bear’s hands.

Checkmate.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
5/24/25