5/16/25: One Brief Shining Moment, and Then … Nothing


There was a glimmer of hope last weekend, when Vladimir Putin suggested a meeting in Istanbul on May 15th. Initially, Volodymyr Zelensky insisted there first be a formal commitment to a 30-day ceasefire; but, at Donald Trump’s insistence, Zelensky agreed to a meeting without a prior ceasefire . . . but on condition that Putin personally come to the table.


And then the days of suspense, while the world hoped that this might be the beginning of the end of the biggest military conflict Europe has seen since World War II. Would Putin show up, or was this just another stall, asserting his control over the negotiations?

Until finally — on the last day before the scheduled meeting, when Zelensky was already en route from Kyiv to Istanbul — the Kremlin made its long-awaited announcement: Moscow would be sending to Turkiye a delegation of eight lower-level “negotiators and experts.” Absent from the list was one name: Vladimir Putin.

The Russian Delegation

We should have known; and somewhere, deep down inside, we did. He never intended to sit down with Zelensky, in Istanbul or anywhere else in the world. He does not want to end this war on any terms but his own; and as long as he can hold out against the sanctions imposed on his country by the Western nations . . . as long as he has countries like China, and India, and North Korea, and Iran to pick up the slack in trade and military support . . . he doesn’t have to end it.

It took just 90 minutes to hammer out an agreement to exchange 1,000 prisoners of war on each side “in the near future,” and to determine that the two sides are still so far apart on the remaining issues — primarily, a meaningful ceasefire, territorial rights, and the return of Ukraine’s kidnapped children — that there was no possibility of any progress being made. [RFE/RL, May 16, 2025.]

In fact, an unnamed Ukrainian source advised Reuters that the Russian delegation made further demands that were “nonstarters . . . detached from reality and [that] go far beyond anything that was previously discussed.” [Id.]

Another source quoted by AFP said that one such demand was “for Ukraine to withdraw forces from large parts of Ukrainian territory it controls in order for a cease-fire to begin” — an apparent reference to the four regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson, partially occupied, and wrongfully claimed, by Russia. [Id.]

The Ukrainian Delegation

Following a summit meeting being held on the same day in Tirana, Albania, that included Ukrainian President Zelensky, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz — and included a phone call with Donald Trump — a joint statement was issued by Prime Minister Starmer saying that “The Russian position is clearly unacceptable, and not for the first time.” He added that “ . . . we are now closely aligning and coordinating our responses and will continue to do so.” [Id.]

The Western Coalition

After the call with Trump, Zelensky issued the following statement on social media:

“Ukraine is ready to take the fastest possible steps to bring real peace, and it is important that the world holds a strong stance. Our position [is that] if the Russians reject a full and unconditional cease-fire and an end to killings, tough sanctions must follow. Pressure on Russia must be maintained until Russia is ready to end the war.” [Id.]

But, despite all of the foregoing, the best the Russians could come up with was a statement from the leader of their delegation, presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, that Moscow was “satisfied with the result [on the whole and] ready to continue contacts.” He said his delegation had “taken note” of Ukraine’s request for direct talks between Zelensky and Putin . . . but did not indicate what the odds were of such talks actually taking place.

Instead, he said they had agreed that “each side will present its vision of a possible future cease-fire and spell it out in detail. After such a vision has been presented, we believe it would be appropriate, as also agreed, to continue our negotiations.” [Id.]

To which, Zelensky had this to say:

“This week we had a real chance to take important steps toward ending this war. If only Putin had not been afraid to come to Turkey.” [Id.]


*. *. *

On one point, I’m afraid I have to disagree with President Zelensky. Putin was not afraid to show up; he never intended to. It’s all part of his game plan, and he’s more than happy to play the long game in order to achieve his goal of total victory.

The offering of a meeting in Istanbul was a ploy . . . “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” [Shakespeare, Macbeth.]

And I have to wonder: How many times will the West be played for the fool before we finally call Putin’s bluff?


Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
5/16/25

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