While president-elect Donald Trump forecasts a quick end to the war in Ukraine once he takes office in January . . . and Russian President Vladimir Putin proclaims Trump to be an “intelligent and experienced” politician capable of finding “solutions,” thereby hinting at the possibility of serious peace negotiations to come . . . Russian forces continue to batter widespread portions of Ukraine with hypersonic and other weapons, aiming specifically at energy infrastructure and other civilian targets, including in the capital city of Kyiv.

Thus, it would appear that Trump is overly optimistic and far too trusting of the man he refuses to acknowledge as an enemy, and not a friend; and Putin — no surprise here — has again proven himself to be a master manipulator and a bald-faced liar.

And, in a timely confirmation of that analysis, along comes a man by the name of Konstantin Malofeev — described as a “conservative Russian tycoon and Kremlin confidant” [Henry Meyer, Bloomberg, December 2, 2024] — to set forth his view that Moscow will turn down any ceasefire proposal brokered by Donald Trump.

Malofeev is a staunch nationalist and a financier who is under Western sanctions. While not a Russian government official or a member of Putin’s administration, he is a devout Putin supporter and has spent millions in support of pro-Kremlin causes, including through his Tsargrad TV station. [Id.] And he says we shouldn’t hold our breath in expectation of an easy truce:

“It’s important that the future US administration understands that a truce is not a gift that Russia is waiting for, that they will start talking to us and we will give in to everything. A truce right now is good for Ukraine and for the US, but for us it brings zero benefits — because we’re winning.” [Id.]

And he’s not wrong. After nearly three years of maintaining a valiant defense, and even staging a surprise offensive into the Kursk region of Russia, Ukraine finds itself nearly exhausted, running out of weapons, and seriously outnumbered.

Malofeev added that it would be a mistake for the U.S. to assume the Kremlin’s position might change with the inauguration of Donald Trump — a mistake, he said, that could “lead to escalation and a conflict with the Trump administration.” [Id.]

There have recently been hints — though not confirmed — of concessions from President Zelensky with regard to possibly ceding some Russian-held areas of Ukraine’s territory.

But that’s not enough for Vladimir Putin; his demands only increase over time, belying his claims of willingness to engage in serious negotiations. According to Malofeev, Russia will continue its attacks until Ukraine agrees to change its constitution to guarantee its neutral status and rule out NATO membership, as well as agreeing to strict limits on the size of its military and a cessation of weapons supplies from the U.S. and its allies. [Id.]

In other words, total capitulation.

In an interview published last Wednesday in Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated Putin’s all-too-familiar demands that Ukraine disarm, declare its neutrality, and recognize new “political-territorial realities.” [Id.]

And on Thursday, Putin warned of the possibility of striking “decision-making centers” in the city of Kyiv with new ballistic missiles, in retaliation for Ukraine’s attacks on Russian territory with Western-supplied missiles.

So — based on all of the recent rhetoric out of Moscow — it looks like a stalemate for the time being, and another harsh winter for the people of Ukraine.

So much for Putin’s original dream of a three-day war. And so much for Ukraine’s hopes of an early settlement.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
12/2/24