Not surprisingly, the Kremlin’s reaction to yesterday’s White House announcement — that permission had been granted to Ukraine for the use of U.S. long-range missiles to defend against Russia’s continuing attacks — was immediate, vicious, and escalatory.

The Russian government’s Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper said on its website on Monday morning that “Departing US president Joe Biden … has taken one of the most provocative, uncalculated decisions of his administration, which risks catastrophic consequences.” [Steve Rosenberg, BBC News, November 18, 2024.]

Member of the Russian Parliament Leonid Slutsky said that the U.S. decision would “inevitably lead to a serious escalation, threatening serious consequences.” [Id.]

And, taking it a step further, Russian Senator Vladimir Dzhabarov called it “an unprecedented step towards World War Three.” [Id.]

On a less threatening note, the pro-Kremlin Komsomolskaya Pravda labeled it a “predictable escalation.” [Id.]

And then we heard from Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who told journalists:

“. . . if such a decision has been taken it means a whole new spiral of tension and a whole new situation with regard to US involvement in this conflict,” and accused the current U.S. administration of “adding fuel to the fire and continuing to stoke tension around this conflict.” [Id.]

As always, Mr. Peskov manages to overlook a few facts, such as:

• Who started the war (a.k.a. “Special Military Operation”) in 2022? — That would be Vladimir Putin.
• Who, for nearly three years, has systematically targeted the infrastructure and civilian areas of a sovereign nation that was not bothering anyone, causing hundreds of thousands of combined civilian and military casualties? — That, again, would be Putin.
• Who has brought in foreign military troops to support its own, as well as mercenaries and former prisoners convicted of the most violent crimes? — You’ve got it: Putin.
• But who screams bloody murder when Ukraine receives support from its allies? — That wouldn’t be Putin, would it? Well . . . yes, it would.
• And who cries like a baby when their victim, Ukraine, dares to strike back on Russian territory? — Oh, please! Do I really have to answer this one?
  

But never mind the war of words. What might Russia actually do as a result of this new development? Reading Vladimir Putin’s mind is a guessing-game at best. But back in June, when asked by journalists what he might do if Ukraine were given the ability to hit targets on Russian soil with weapons supplied by Europe, this is what he replied:

“First, we will, of course, improve our air defence systems. We will be destroying their missiles. Second, we believe that if someone is thinking it is possible to supply such weapons to a war zone to strike our territory and create problems for us, why can’t we supply our weapons of the same class to those regions around the world where they will target sensitive facilities of the countries that are doing this to Russia?” [Id.]

That’s fairly straightforward, wouldn’t you say?

And more recently, Putin’s ally, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, had this to say to BBC’s Steve Rosenberg:

“I warned them [Western officials]. ‘Guys, be careful with those long-range missiles.’

“The Houthi [rebels] might come to Putin and ask for coastal weapons systems that can carry out terrifying strikes on ships. And if he gets his revenge on you for supplying long-range weapons to [President] Zelensky by supplying the Houthis with the Bastion missile system? What happens if an aircraft carrier is hit? A British or American one. What then?”
[Id.]

Chilling words. Is it any wonder, then, that Poland has established a NATO-integrated missile defense base in its northern regions? Or that Sweden and Finland are giving their citizens instructions on “how to survive a war”?

*. *. *

But there is another factor to consider in attempting to assess Vladimir Putin’s state of mind: the Trump Factor.

Joe Biden has just another two months to serve as President of the United States. He has been stalwart in his support of Ukraine; and Vladimir Putin knows — in fact, the whole world knows — that Donald Trump is far less . . . shall we say . . . enthusiastic about continuing that support.

My money is on Putin simply waiting out the next two months, relying on his ability — whether real or perceived — to manipulate Trump in ways that he has been unable to do with President Biden.

If I’m right, it wouldn’t be the best-case scenario for Ukraine — though it’s certainly not as terrifying as the prospect of World War III.

But then, nothing is. And Vladimir Putin knows it.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
11/19/24