On the one hand, I’m sure Yevgeny Prigozhin would be happy to know that his Wagner Group lives on, a year after his own death in a fiery plane crash on August 23, 2023. But on the other hand, I’m not so sure he’d like what it’s been turned into.

To begin with, the former Wagner Group is now under the aegis of the GRU — Russia’s military intelligence directorate. It has been renamed, and is now known as the Africa Corps (AC).

If that sounds familiar, it should. The name was stolen directly from Germany’s World War II Afrika Korps, headed by the infamous “Desert Fox,” Field Marshal Erwin Rommel. Why Putin, or the GRU, or whoever chose the name couldn’t come up with something original — and more puzzlingly, why they would choose to adopt the Nazi reference — I can’t imagine; but there it is.

Some things haven’t changed. The war in Ukraine remains the AC’s first priority; but its heavy involvement in African political, industrial and economic affairs has floundered somewhat since the loss of its leader. Prigozhin was the founder of, and the brains and muscle behind, the Wagner Group; and he fiercely maintained its independence. His troops were loyal to him, and his sudden death created a void that has yet to be filled. Not all members remained with what is now the GRUs Africa Corps; some joined the Russian National Guard, while others are now part of a Chechen militia force. [RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty, August 21, 2024.]

Political analyst Mark Galeotti, speaking at Washington’s Brookings Institution on August 20th, said that those Wagner personnel who were blended into the GRU are “trying to run a blended diplomatic, commercial, and military structure, while they only have the skill set to run the latter.” [Id.]

The AC remains active in Libya, Mali, and the Central African Republic, and has begun making inroads into Burkina Faso and Niger. Even the government of the little island nation of Sao Tome and Principe, off of Africa’s west coast, has indicated that it would like to send its forces to a Russian training academy in Chechnya. [Id.]

And Russia is buying off Guinea Bissau by canceling and restructuring large portions of its debt, which would give Russia access to that country’s substantial cocaine trade and a link to the organized crime groups from both Africa and Latin America that convene there. [Id.]

That’s how they operate, and always have done: Like any successful Mafia-style group, they play on your weaknesses until they own you. Violence is an adjunct tool, to be used freely as needed.

According to Professor Christopher Faulkner of the U.S. Naval War College, “Africa Corps is still in its elementary phase . . . We’re just waiting to see what’s going to transpire and whether or not Moscow will actually invest in real genuine security in those states.” [Id.]

Security? Is that what they’re calling it now? What a great name for sending armed goons into a desperately poor, politically unstable country; promising miracles in return for the only type of payment the country can offer, and its only real asset: its rich natural resources; and installing your own chosen people at the head of the government, thus creating yet another Russian vassal state.

So it’s business as usual in Africa, but without Prigozhin to keep his troops operating efficiently. And the ultimate goal? Well, as Professor Faulkner said, we simply have to wait and see. But it does seem to have some of the earmarks of another Cold War-era Eastern Europe . . . only without having to acknowledge it as an invasion.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
8/22/24