No, not that kind of mystery. Sorry, Snoopy.

This is a real-life puzzler, involving the sudden, unannounced, and unexplained movement of about a dozen political prisoners in Russia, of various nationalities, from their respective prison locations to unknown destinations. I alluded to it yesterday, and there are more specifics today.

Suddenly “missing” are several high-profile Russian oppositionists, including politician Ilya Yashin; co-founder of the rights group Memorial, Oleg Orlov; artist/musician Sasha Skochilenko; and two colleagues of the late Alexei Navalny, Ksenia Fadeyeva and Lilia Chanysheva. And — perhaps most notably dropped out of sight — is former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, currently the longest-held of the American hostages. [Eva Hartog, Politico, July 31, 2024.]

The locations of Russian-British citizen Vladimir Kara-Murza (last seen in the prison hospital at penal colony IK-7 in Omsk) and Russian-German Kevin Liik are similarly “unclear.”

And significantly, there has been no recent mention of American Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, recently sentenced to 16 years in a Russian penal colony at Yekaterinburg; or of Russian FSB hitman Vadim Krasikov, currently serving a life sentence for the murder of a Chechen emigre in Berlin, Germany — both of whom have figured prominently in media speculation concerning a possible exchange arrangement. [Politico, id.]

There is also the matter of Rico Kroeger, the German citizen recently convicted on terrorism charges and sentenced to death in Belarus. Only this week, Belarus presumptive president Aleksandr Lukashenko unexpectedly commuted Kroeger’s sentence to life in prison.

And — perhaps coincidentally, perhaps not — on Wednesday a Russian couple in Slovenia were convicted of espionage and ordered expelled.

Oh, and by the way . . .

It seems that the names of a number of high-profile Russians being held in U.S. prisons on various charges — including Maksim Marchenko, Vadim Konoshchenok, Vladislav Klyushin, Roman Seleznev, and Aleksandr Vinnik — have recently been removed from the American federal prisoner database. It is highly unlikely that they all managed to escape at once. [Politico, id.]

*. *. *

And all of that, according to the political pundits and the rumor mills, is looking like the lead-in to a prisoner exchange of extraordinary proportions. But why now — in fact, why at all — when relations between Russia and the United States are at an historically low ebb? Why would Vladimir Putin agree to a concession of this magnitude?

Well, we know he does nothing without a self-serving reason. There are Russians being held in foreign prisons whose government would like to have returned. It is no secret that this is at least part of the reason for the recent round-up of so many Americans and others on specious charges of espionage, failing to register as a “foreign agent,” or simply of spreading “false information.” They are Putin’s Pawns in his very extensive, very high-stakes chess game.

But, again, why specifically now? The big money seems to be on the upcoming U.S. election, and whom Putin might have to deal with later. Based on the history of recent years, one might think that he would prefer to negotiate with his good “friend” and admirer, Donald Trump. But it turns out that Trump — color me surprised! — is not such a loyal friend after all. In addition to claiming that he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of being elected, he has made similar boasts about securing Evan Gershkovich’s release. It’s all about boosting his own image. In May, Trump wrote:

“Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, will do that for me, but not for anyone else, and WE WILL BE PAYING NOTHING!”

Well, good for you, Donnie. But Putin is infinitely smarter than you could ever hope to be. And he does nothing for nothing. With Joe Biden in office, he has a president he can deal with on reasonable terms, who sincerely cares about the welfare of those hostages, and who knows you have to give something to get something back.

So, let’s hope the experts are right, and there is big — and, for once, good — news in the offing. It is long, long overdue.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendocka
8/1/24