It hasn’t been that surprising to see the number of Middle Eastern, African, and Latin American countries that have recently been kissing up to Vladimir Putin. But equally — or possibly even more — disturbing, though for vastly different reasons, is the evolving relationship between India and Russia. And when you factor in China, well . . . it becomes the stuff of nightmares.

India’s connection with today’s Russia has its roots in its ties with the Soviet Union during the Cold War years. Their status as trading partners is nothing new; but it has expanded incrementally since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent sanctions placed against the Putin regime by the West since then. At present, India is one of the two principal customers for Russia’s oil — the other being China — and Mr. Modi, now in his third term as Prime Minister, consistently refuses to condemn Moscow for its actions in Ukraine, merely calling for a peaceful settlement.

But all is not well between India and China — not merely as competitors for Russia’s favors, but as a result of long-standing border disputes. And Russia’s increasingly close ties with China have caused friction in its dealings with India, to the extent that Modi skipped the recent summit in Kazakhstan of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization — a security grouping created by Moscow and Beijing to counter Western alliances — instead sending his Foreign Minister. Both Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping were in attendance.

“The enemy of my friend is my enemy” has no meaning in Putin’s world. There are no loyalties, only expediencies — a fact that Mr. Modi would do well to keep in mind.

* NOTE: Most interesting in the above photo is the tall fellow standing to Putin’s immediate right: none other than Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of NATO member Turkiye. Despite his country’s being listed — not as a full member — but as a “dialogue partner” of SCO, he appears to take pride of place, front and center, in this motley lineup. A prize-winning fence-sitter, indeed, is our Mr. Erdogan.

*. *. *

Still, none of this was allowed to interfere with Modi’s visit this week to Moscow, where he met with Putin on Monday at the latter’s palatial residence in the Novo-Ogaryovo region on the outskirts of the city — the very day of Russia’s bombing of a children’s hospital in Kyiv. This was followed by formal talks at the Kremlin on Tuesday (yesterday), just as NATO members were gathering in Washington for their summit. To those who believe the timing was coincidental, I would say simply: “Wake up!” In Vladimir Putin’s world, there are also no coincidences.

Photos posted on Modi’s “X” account of his red-carpet arrival in Moscow were accompanied by a statement, in both English and Russian, that he was “looking forward to further deepening the Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership between our nations.” [AP, July 8, 2024.]

There were bear hugs, pledges of loyalty and friendship, and mutual expressions of admiration served along with lunch on the best presidential china. To which at least one savvy individual — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — had this to say:

“It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day.” [Independent (U.K.), July 9, 2024.]

And here is where I envision Prime Minister Modi losing a whole lot of sleep. Because, as is well known, the United States and India have long enjoyed a bilateral trade relationship in areas such as semiconductors, space, telecom, AI, defense, biotechnology, and others. According to the U.S. Department of State, “The relationship between the United States and India is one of the most strategic and consequential of the 21st Century.” [U.S. Department of State, United States-India Relations, Nov. 9, 2023.]

So how does Prime Minister Modi justify playing both sides? And how long does he expect to be able to continue doing so? I know of a Turkish leader who can fill him in on the extreme discomfort of fence-sitting.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
7/10/24