What’s that sound? I seem to hear a puzzled “WHO???” coming from all directions. You mean you’ve never heard of Ramzan Kadyrov?

It’s understandable, really; his is not exactly a household name. But if you’re one of the odd group of individuals who call ourselves Russophiles, you will know that he is the brutal overlord who, with the blessing of Vladimir Putin, sits at the head of the government of the Russian Republic of Chechnya.

But you don’t have to be a Russophile to be aware of the role Chechnya has played in Russia’s war against Ukraine, sending thousands of troops into the battlefield. Or the fierce, animalistic brutality with which those troops are known to fight and to treat both their military adversaries and innocent civilians. Kadyrov is Putin’s Puppet, doing his master’s bidding without question or hesitation . . . or conscience.

It hasn’t always been this way, though. In the 1990s, Chechnya fought two separatist wars with the Russian government . . . and lost. Kadyrov’s father, Akhmad Kadyrov, was head of the Chechen government then, and ceded the second war to Putin’s administration in 2003 . . . a move that proved both smart and fatal. He was rewarded with the presidency of the Chechen Republic in 2003; and he was assassinated in 2004. The seat was then occupied by one Alu Alkhanov for three years until he was dismissed by Putin in 2007, at which time our friend Ramzan turned 30 (the age at which one is eligible for the presidency in Chechnya). And he has been Vladimir Putin’s best friend in the Caucasus ever since.

Now, however, rumor has it that Ramzan Kadyrov, at the tender age of 47, is terminally ill, possibly as a result of the pancreatic necrosis with which he was diagnosed some five years ago. But details are sparse, due largely to the Kremlin’s efforts to convince the world that Kadyrov is still in good health.

Now I hear you asking: “Why?” Excellent question. Indeed, why would the loss of one man, merely the head of a Russian republic and not a sovereign nation, be of such importance?

Because of the order of succession. Normally, one of Kadyrov’s sons would inherit the office, as Ramzan did when he became of age. But Ramzan Kadyrov’s sons are just 18 and 15 years old. Instead, there are two individuals considered as likely successors: Major General Apti Alaudinov, commander of the Chechen Akhmat mercenary units in Ukraine, and Adam Delimkhanov, Kadyrov’s counsel and representative of Chechnya in the Russian Parliament.

As elucidated by Mark Galeotti of The Sunday Times:

“This is why Kadyrov’s likely death matters so much. If attempts to install a new leader cause splits in the Chechen elite, then this is likely to become not just a political but an armed dispute.”

And as one Russian political commentator succinctly put it: “There are too many men with guns and grudges there to be able to assume that things won’t turn bloody.” [Elliott Goat, The Week UK, April 30, 2024.]

And therein lies Putin’s problem. In simplest terms:

“Were the region to descend into armed conflict, the Russian president would have to decide whether to divert troops from Ukraine to restore order or risk losing Chechnya altogether.

“His brutal handling of the would-be breakaway territory 25 yeear ago made Putin’s name and established him as a ruthless and uncompromising leader. A quarter of a century on [in other words, now], it could prove his undoing.” [The Week UK, id.] [Emphasis is mine.]

And that’s why it matters.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
5/2/24