Forget the mile-long patronymics (middle names, based on the father’s first name) that are such a traditional — and actually useful — part of the Russian naming protocol. To simplify, we’re talking here about Vladimir Putin and Nikolai Patrushev.

“WHO??” I’m sure I heard that coming from several directions, and not surprisingly. Outside of Russia — and the rarified world of Russophiles — Nikolai Patrushev is not exactly a household name. Which is probably why I overlooked him in a previous blog post when I was contemplating possible successors to Putin in the event of his . . . well . . . departure from the Kremlin. But with all of the recent rumors concerning Putin’s health, the slight possibility that he might choose not to run again in next March’s election, and even his possibly already being dead and mummified, up popped Patrushev’s name. So, being insatiably curious, I of course embarked on a little research trip into his background.

I thought this was a pretty nice picture of him; he looks like a man trying out the executive chair at the Security Council table. Easy, Nikolai — I don’t think Putin is gone just yet. Unless you know something the rest of us don’t . . .

But Patrushev does belong at that table, if not (yet) at the head. He is Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, where he has served since 2008. Prior to that, he was employed as Director of the Federal Security Service (FSB), one of the two successor agencies to the KGB, from 1999 to 2008. (Coincidentally — that is, if you actually believe in these kinds of coincidences — 1999 was also the year in which Putin was first elected President of Russia.)

And speaking of coincidences that probably aren’t . . . Patrushev, who is just a year older than Putin, hails from the same home town of St. Petersburg (formerly Leningrad), and has known Putin since the 1970s, when they worked together as young men in the Leningrad KGB. He is now considered one of Putin’s inner circle of siloviki (people of influence), and is said to have played a key role in the decisions to invade Crimea in 2014, Syria in 2015, and . . . no surprise here . . . Ukraine, again, in 2022. He is generally known to be politically hawkish, and vehemently anti-Western.

So, if Putin’s whereabouts are indeed in question, Patrushev is one of the few people who might actually know what’s going on. And let us not overlook the fact that seated right next to (or across from) him at that long Security Council table is the mercurial Dmitri Medvedev, who occupies the role of Deputy Chairman — the Chairman being Putin himself.

Now, that may sound like a nice cozy little triad, except for three very important facts: they’re Russian politicians, they’re all former “spooks” (as we Americans refer to our community of spies), and they all have their eyes fixed on climbing over each other and landing their asses in that cushy executive chair. Which makes them — besides contortionists — “frenemies” at best. And at worst . . . well, I’d say, capable of just about anything.

Well . . . hopefully not that!

*. *. *

At any rate, this situation ranks (in my view, at least) as 2023’s guessing game of the year. Actually, it’s a two-parter: “Is Putin Alive?” and “Who’s Next?” And that second part, whenever the time does come, is bound to be a thriller. Considering Russia’s long history of “palace intrigues,” and the lineup of contestants for this jackpot, I plan to settle in with a big bowl of chips; a family-size bag of M&Ms; and a quart of Stolichnaya’s finest vodka, chilled to warming perfection. It should be quite a show.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
11/8/23