According to some reports, Vladimir Putin has been dead for a week, and a dvoinik (a double) has been standing in for him. Others, including the ever-present, irrepressible Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, vehemently deny the rumors.

Of course, these rumors are nothing new; they’ve been circulating for years. “He’s being treated for cancer.” “No, he isn’t.” “He was visibly shaking during a meeting.” “No, he wasn’t.” “He looks pale.” “Of course he does; he’s White!” If any of these rumors had been true, he would have been dead years ago.

According to 2020 statistics, the average life expectancy of the Russian male is 71.34 years. Putin celebrated his 71st birthday last month; so by that standard too, he should probably be dead . . . that is, if he were an average male. But he’s far from average, in more ways than one.

On the positive side, he’s always been very athletic. As far as is publicly known, he doesn’t smoke or drink. He maintains a healthy weight. So, barring any genetic anomalies, the odds for a long life are in his favor. On the other hand, his stress factor is off the charts, but maybe he’s one of those people who thrive on stress. I don’t know him personally, of course, but it seems pretty obvious that he’s a Type A personality — AA, if there is such a thing. He’d probably die faster from the boredom of retirement than the anxiety of being President of Russia.

But there’s an election coming up in March, and he’s been a little cagey about stating exactly what his plans are. The general consensus is that he’ll run again — and win again — keeping him in charge for the next six years. And, based on constitutional amendments that he himself instigated a number of years ago, he could run for yet another six-year term after that. That would put him into his early 80s . . . which, by American standards, seems to have become the norm for presidential and congressional candidates these days. But in Russia, that’s pretty old.

And there’s also the question being asked of what would happen if he were prematurely removed from office . . . in a coup, for example. So it’s quite natural that people should have started wondering: After Putin . . . who?

Good question. And a scary one, when you consider the slate of likely contenders. Since there’s little hope of Alexei Navalny being released from prison in time to start a campaign, let’s be realistic and look at who’s lurking behind the curtains at “Elsinore” — or, in this case, the Kremlin.

Of course, there have been mentions of the Prime Minister, Sergei Lavrov; the Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu; Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov; and a few with whom I’m not that familiar . . . all, unfortunately, hard-liners in the mold of Putin himself. But there’s one who’s at or near the top of the list of contenders who frightens me the most: Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council.

Medvedev. The man who — when Putin’s first two consecutive terms as president ran out in 2008, forcing him to step down for one term — smoothly moved in for four years as Charley McCarthy to Putin’s Edgar Bergen; and who became Prime Minister when Putin resumed the presidential office in 2012; and who now sits so close to Putin’s right hand he may as well be seated in his lap, like the puppet he is. And the same man who has gone so far off the rails in the past couple of years, he is hardly recognizable as the same Medvedev who played the role of a kinder, gentler president little more than a decade ago.

What do I mean by “off the rails”? I think that can best be demonstrated by Medvedev’s own words:

Speaking on his official social media platform regarding Ukraine: “Scumbags and freaks understand only cruelty and force. Apparently, the strikes on Odesa, Izmail, and other places were not enough for them.” [Andrew Osborn, Reuters, Aug. 5, 2023.]

Later, on Telegram: “Ukrainian criminals announced that they received approval for any strikes throughout Russia, for example, Crimea. If this is true (and there is no reason to doubt it now), then this is direct, legally significant evidence of the West’s complicity in the war against Russia . . . and the opportunity for Russia to act within the jus ad bellum against everyone and everything in the NATO countries. Sad, unfortunately. The prophecies of the Apocalypse are getting closer.” [Ukrainska Pravda, Aug. 29, 2023.]

And, again on Telegram: “The special military operations will continue until Kyiv’s Nazi regime is annihilated and historically Russian territories are liberated from the enemy. The victory will be ours. More new territories will become part of Russia.” [Ukrainska Pravda, Sept. 30, 2023.]

Just last month, when the chair of the Defence Committee at the German Bundestag urged the German government to give long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine because, she believes, Ukraine has the right to attack targets on the territory of the Russian Federation, Medvedev — clearly not pleased, to state it mildly — lashed out: “In this case, attacks on German plants where these missiles are made will be entirely within the norms of international law. These imbeciles really are pushing us towards the Third World [War] . . .” [Ukrainska Pravda, Oct. 1, 2023.]

Russia vs. Germany again? Where are Molotov and von Ribbentrop when you really need them?

And this week, in a lengthy article published in the November 2nd issue of Rossiyskaya Gazeta, he included a warning to Poland — which he denounced as a “dangerous adversary of Moscow” — of a possible “loss of statehood,” and cautioned that “history has warned the Poles on multiple occasions that their ambitions, no matter how ambitious, could lead to the collapse of the entire Polish state.”

And I’ve lost count of the number of times he’s off-handedly tossed out the nuclear option in various contexts.

*. *. *

I’m sure you see what I mean. This is clearly a man with a short fuse, and not to be lightly dismissed; nor is he the one you want with his finger on Russia’s nuclear button. When I hear his pronouncements and outright threats, suddenly Vladimir Putin doesn’t look quite so bad. So don’t be fooled into thinking things couldn’t possibly get worse than they are today; that’s probably what you believed yesterday.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
11/4/23