I posted the following on Facebook today:

Another Russian winter is just around the corner, and “Now 575 days into his war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has halted virtually all exports of gasoline and diesel out of the country to lessen the pain for average Russians and protect the nation’s food supply.” (Christiaan Hetzner, Fortune, September 22, 2023.) This was the “special military operation” that was supposed to have ended in a glorious Russian victory in a matter of days, now heading into its third winter. And with all resources being directed at the war effort, Mr. Putin has awakened to the fact that he needs to keep his people warm and fed. So he has stopped fuel exports, except to a few of his allies such as Belarus. Has he considered the likely domino effect of that action — not only to his own economy, but to much of the rest of the world that will have to adjust accordingly? I can hardly wait for the next chapter (that’s sarcasm).

Then I began thinking about those falling dominoes. Quite a few countries still depend on Russia to supply a percentage of their fuel requirements, and each will have to adapt according to its individual needs and other available resources. Even those countries with their own adequate supplies of oil and gas — the U.S., for example — may have to cut back on exports to conserve domestic supplies, and will most likely see prices rise, just at the time of year when fuel consumption is at its highest. We may feel the pain; but we’ll survive.

And yet . . . I can’t help worrying about Ukraine. There is already dissension in our Congress concerning the amount of assistance we should continue making available to their defense. And with the war dragging on to an extent that no one ever anticipated, other countries are feeling the bite as well. Everyone wants to help; but how long can they continue to do so? And — worst-case scenario — if aid to Ukraine falters, how long would it be until their very survival follows suit?

At this point, my mind jumps from the economic (not my strong suit) to the geopolitical ramifications. Let’s assume that Putin and his remaining supporters are able to pull their country through the present crisis, and the world maintains its political status quo. The war in Ukraine continues, but worldwide support falls short of what is needed to prevent a Russian takeover. The disastrous effect on the Ukrainian people is virtually unimaginable; they would once again be part of a modified Soviet Union. Their independence would be gone, their noble history erased . . . and their “breadbasket” would fall under Russian control. I leave it to the economists to calculate the trickle-down effect of that worst-case scenario.

And finally, I wonder how long it would take Russia to choose its next victim to be gobbled up. Would it be Poland? Or would they start smaller and simpler, say, with Moldova? And a couple of additional neighbors of Belarus: Hungary and Slovakia. The menu of possible selections is vast and tempting.

Which is why I am so alarmed by those in Congress who want to cut support for Ukraine. Don’t they understand that it’s not just a present-day issue, or a localized one, but that the future of a world without an independent Ukraine is bleak? Someone please give them textbooks on 20th Century World History, and this time make sure they actually read them.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
9/23/23