As reported yesterday by Business Insider: According to investigative journalist Christo Grozev of Bellingcat, within six months Yevgeny Prigozhin will stage a second coup attempt against the Kremlin, or he will be dead.

I’m setting my clock now.

First of all, we should keep in mind that this is Mr. Grozev’s stated opinion. He reminds us that he previously told the Financial Times: “I said last January that Prigozhin would turn on Putin within six months — and it just fit within my timeframe.” He said this was based on “suspicions [that] were sparked by the fact that there was an increase in telephone traffic between Russia’s senior military, per data acquired by Bellingcat.”

He continues: “Putin went on TV and called Prigozhin a traitor. Everyone knows what they do with ‘traitors,’ and Putin hasn’t done that. He wants to see him dead. He can’t do that yet. In six months, Prigozhin will either be dead, or there will be a second coup. I’m agnostic between the two, but I can’t see neither of these happening.”

In other words, he forecasts the inevitability of either a coup or the elimination of Prigozhin, with no other reasonable option. But Mr. Grozev fails to explain why he believes that Putin can’t do away with Prigozhin just yet. And he goes on to cite “rumors circulating that hundreds of Wagner troops are leaving Belarus to return to Russia, and are ready to ‘activate’ at the end of August . . .” — citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). And further: “A Russian insider source and a Wagner-affiliated source speculated that this might be because [Belarusian President] Lukashenko refused to finance Wagner as he had expected Russia would be responsible for them.”

Mr. Grozev then acknowledges that the ISW noted that “the validity of these claims are unclear at this time, and it remains to be seen how the Wagner Group will proceed and how Putin might respond.”

So, once more, this is all the analysis of one journalist, based in large part on rumors and speculation. Of course, with Yevgeny Prigozhin, that’s pretty much all we ever have to work with. He remains an enigma; Putin never reveals what he’s really thinking; and Lukashenko is a wild card. And we — the rest of the world — can only wait to see what happens next.

Stayed tuned.

Brendochka
8/13/23