It’s looking that way today!

Just four of the expected returnees. Prayers going out to them and all the others involved today, and every day. Let this be the day for a miracle.

*. *. *

And by the way, what about American teacher Marc Fogel?

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka

8/1/24

What on earth is happening here? It looks to me as though Donald Tusk is either (1) warning Viktor Orban that a flock of cranes is about to swoop down on them, or (2) telling him that the Man Upstairs is not happy with his recent political activities.

I vote for the latter.

It doesn’t require a great deal of insight to reach that conclusion. Orban is well known to be the most Kremlin-friendly of all of the leaders in the EU. He has been selling himself to Vladimir Putin as the person who is best suited to negotiate a settlement of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and has even — without EU knowledge or approval — engaged in some one-man shuttle diplomacy, traveling to Moscow, Kyiv and Beijing to promote his absurdly egotistical notion.

And he has formed a coalition of like-minded fellow EU members, calling themselves Patriots for Europe, to attempt to reformulate a Habsburg-like empire to lead their idea of a new, extreme-nationalist Europe.

Is it any wonder, then, that tensions have arisen among the EU members, and most particularly between Hungary and Poland, which — like most European nations — is a staunch, supportive ally of Ukraine.

Last weekend, Orban threw down the gauntlet to Poland:

“The Poles are pursuing the most sanctimonious and the most hypocritical policy in the whole of Europe. They are lecturing us morally, criticizing us for our economic relations with Russia, and at the same time they are doing business with the Russians and buying oil indirectly, and running the Polish economy with it.” [Vanessa Gera and Balint Domotor, Associated Press, July 30, 2024.]

And the response on Sunday from Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Wladyslaw Teofil Bartoszewski pulled no punches:

“We do not do business with Russia, unlike Prime Minister Orban, who is on the margins of international society — both in terms of European Union and NATO.” [AP, id.]

Note that, while Poland — like a number of other European nations — was once dependent on Russian energy, it has been weaning itself off of Russian oil and gas for years. [AP, id.]

Orban’s relations with both Russia and China, and his recent unsanctioned travels to both countries, have brought about a boycott by top EU officials of meetings being hosted by Hungary during its current six-month rotating term as president of the EU.

Poland’s Bartoszewski had more to say:

“If you don’t want to be a member of a club, you can always leave. I don’t really understand why Hungary wants to remain a member of organizations [referencing the EU and NATO] that it doesn’t like so much and which supposedly treat it so badly.” [AP, id.]

And so it goes.

*. *. *

When I visited Budapest in 1990, it was a country newly separated from Soviet rule, happily reestablishing itself as an independent, democratic nation. I freely strolled through the city; enjoyed a private tour of the magnificent Parliament building; traveled by boat to the artists’ enclave at Szentendre; ate goulash by the ton; and talked with lawyers and others about Hungary’s bright future.

It is sad to see it now turning in a dangerous direction. But it is still more worrisome to consider the possibility that other European leaders might possibly join with Orban in his misguided attempt to reinvent a failed empire.

I can only hope that the failure will be his.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
8/1/24

No, not that kind of mystery. Sorry, Snoopy.

This is a real-life puzzler, involving the sudden, unannounced, and unexplained movement of about a dozen political prisoners in Russia, of various nationalities, from their respective prison locations to unknown destinations. I alluded to it yesterday, and there are more specifics today.

Suddenly “missing” are several high-profile Russian oppositionists, including politician Ilya Yashin; co-founder of the rights group Memorial, Oleg Orlov; artist/musician Sasha Skochilenko; and two colleagues of the late Alexei Navalny, Ksenia Fadeyeva and Lilia Chanysheva. And — perhaps most notably dropped out of sight — is former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, currently the longest-held of the American hostages. [Eva Hartog, Politico, July 31, 2024.]

The locations of Russian-British citizen Vladimir Kara-Murza (last seen in the prison hospital at penal colony IK-7 in Omsk) and Russian-German Kevin Liik are similarly “unclear.”

And significantly, there has been no recent mention of American Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, recently sentenced to 16 years in a Russian penal colony at Yekaterinburg; or of Russian FSB hitman Vadim Krasikov, currently serving a life sentence for the murder of a Chechen emigre in Berlin, Germany — both of whom have figured prominently in media speculation concerning a possible exchange arrangement. [Politico, id.]

There is also the matter of Rico Kroeger, the German citizen recently convicted on terrorism charges and sentenced to death in Belarus. Only this week, Belarus presumptive president Aleksandr Lukashenko unexpectedly commuted Kroeger’s sentence to life in prison.

And — perhaps coincidentally, perhaps not — on Wednesday a Russian couple in Slovenia were convicted of espionage and ordered expelled.

Oh, and by the way . . .

It seems that the names of a number of high-profile Russians being held in U.S. prisons on various charges — including Maksim Marchenko, Vadim Konoshchenok, Vladislav Klyushin, Roman Seleznev, and Aleksandr Vinnik — have recently been removed from the American federal prisoner database. It is highly unlikely that they all managed to escape at once. [Politico, id.]

*. *. *

And all of that, according to the political pundits and the rumor mills, is looking like the lead-in to a prisoner exchange of extraordinary proportions. But why now — in fact, why at all — when relations between Russia and the United States are at an historically low ebb? Why would Vladimir Putin agree to a concession of this magnitude?

Well, we know he does nothing without a self-serving reason. There are Russians being held in foreign prisons whose government would like to have returned. It is no secret that this is at least part of the reason for the recent round-up of so many Americans and others on specious charges of espionage, failing to register as a “foreign agent,” or simply of spreading “false information.” They are Putin’s Pawns in his very extensive, very high-stakes chess game.

But, again, why specifically now? The big money seems to be on the upcoming U.S. election, and whom Putin might have to deal with later. Based on the history of recent years, one might think that he would prefer to negotiate with his good “friend” and admirer, Donald Trump. But it turns out that Trump — color me surprised! — is not such a loyal friend after all. In addition to claiming that he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of being elected, he has made similar boasts about securing Evan Gershkovich’s release. It’s all about boosting his own image. In May, Trump wrote:

“Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, will do that for me, but not for anyone else, and WE WILL BE PAYING NOTHING!”

Well, good for you, Donnie. But Putin is infinitely smarter than you could ever hope to be. And he does nothing for nothing. With Joe Biden in office, he has a president he can deal with on reasonable terms, who sincerely cares about the welfare of those hostages, and who knows you have to give something to get something back.

So, let’s hope the experts are right, and there is big — and, for once, good — news in the offing. It is long, long overdue.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendocka
8/1/24

The reports are calling it a pardon. What it really is, is a commutation from a death sentence to life in prison. But it is a hopeful sign — although a sign of what, remains to be seen.

Arrested in October, accused of acting as a mercenary (presumably on behalf of Ukraine) and of planting explosives, he is the first Western citizen known to have been given the death penalty in Belarus. And now, following international condemnation for the harshness of the sentence, Belarus’ presumptive president, Aleksandr Lukashenko, has stepped forward and commuted Kroeger’s sentence to life imprisonment.

What a guy! Or so say Belarusian state media, praising Lukashenko’s “merciful” action, and claiming the Germans had abandoned their own citizen (not true). And Lukashenko quietly released a number of political prisoners earlier this month as well.

But what is really behind this sudden turn of events? Could Belarus be making a peace offering to the West? Not likely . . . at least, not without the backing of Vladimir Putin. In fact, the more likely scenario is that Putin is, as usual, pulling the strings for this show.

And that inevitably raises more questions than answers. But in the meantime, cheers to Rico Kroeger. Even the smallest ray of hope is worth celebrating.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
7/31/24

Sometimes, when the day you’re about to face starts off like this:

The best thing to do is one of these:

And if the problems are still there the next day . . . well, there’s always this:

I think this is one of those days.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
7/31/24

It could be an Olympic sport: jumping head-first into the world news each morning, leaping from one disaster to another, fighting to maintain your focus. You have to prepare for it, train your mind and your body to anticipate the shocks to your system, and develop your best cool-down methods. And then you must accept the fact that your body will only be able to tolerate this punishment for a finite number of years before the inevitable collapse.

You want examples? No problem. These are just a few samples from yesterday’s (July 30, 2024) headlines:

Croatia: Six killed after gunman opens fire in care home, local media reports.

– Dreadful! Harmless, helpless old folks . . .

*. *. *

A third girl has died in the UK after one of the worst attacks on children in decades.

– Omigod! Children!

*. *. *

Children and teens among 12 dead in Golan Heights attack that Israel blames on Hezbollah, raising fears of major escalation.

– More innocent children! I feel sick.

*. *. *

Israeli attacks kill at least 19 Palestinians, including children, across Gaza.

– Stop! I can’t take any more!

*. *. *

Wait . . . this just in: Hamas Political Leader Ismail Haniyeh Killed in Iran.

– Didn’t I just say I couldn’t take any more? Weren’t you listening?!!

*. *. *

And I haven’t even touched on the day’s political updates from Russia, China, North Korea, Ukraine, Hungary, Belarus, or the U.S. presidential election.

So please excuse me while I take the rest of the day off. My mind just shut down.

Brendochka
7/31/24

“Putin and the Houthis” may sound like a good name for a rock group; but what it really signifies is major trouble in the Middle East — as though that region needs any more excuses to explode.

The fact is that Russia is now threatening to arm Yemen’s Houthi militants with advanced anti-ship missiles, purportedly in retaliation for the United States’ o.k.-ing Ukrainian strikes inside Russia with U.S. weapons.

Yet Vladimir Putin — again ignoring the fact that he invaded Ukraine, and not the other way around — sees no problem with helping this terrorist organization to achieve its goals, thereby exacerbating an already horrific situation in a region on the verge of self-destructing.

And he still thinks we’ll believe him when he presents himself as the ultimate peacemaker. Really, Vlad??!!!

How stupid do you think we are?

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
7/31/24

Not again!

Yes, again. Only this time it’s not just one, but several prisoners, removed from sight without warning or explanation. And they’re not American or other foreign hostages, but Russians, all imprisoned for “criticizing the military” or for their previous work with the late Alexei Navalny.

It came to light today when Tatyana Solomina, the attorney for Ilya Yashin, reported on the Telegram messaging app that her client has been moved from the prison in which he has been serving an 8-1/2-year sentence for criticizing Russia’s war in Ukraine, to an “unknown destination.” Her statement provided no further details.

It was noted, however, that several other Russian political prisoners have also been moved. Three of those named — Oleg Orlov, Lilia Chanysheva and Ksenia Fadeyeva — are already on my list of Putin’s hostages, as is Ilya Yashin himself.

A fifth person — artist/musician Aleksandra Skochilenko — is new to me; she is serving seven years for “replacing price tags in a supermarket with messages decrying civilian deaths in Ukraine.” [Jim Heintz, Associated Press, July 30, 2024.]

And convicted of a different category of crime is German-born Russian citizen Kevin Liik, sentenced to four years for allegedly providing information to German special services — also removed from his prison. [Associated Press, id.]

There has been speculation on social media as to whether this might indicate a possible forthcoming prisoner swap. But with whom, and for whom? Prisoner exchanges are generally made between countries, as in the case of American basketball star Brittney Griner being traded for Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout. But here we have six Russian citizens. For whom would they be traded, and where would they go after being released? Or does this activity have nothing whatsoever to do with an exchange? Then what?

If these six are to be released, why them, and why now? Could the whole thing be a public relations ploy — a small concession to show the world what a good-hearted guy Vladimir Putin is? Is it part of a psychological game designed to keep everyone guessing? Or is it simply a routine shuffling of the prison population?

There are far too many unanswered questions here, and — as I seem to be saying so often of late — we can only wait, and hope for the best. In Russia, it is never wise to jump to conclusions.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
7/30/24

It made me laugh so hard, I just had to share it.

It’s like looking in a freaking mirror!

ROFLMFAO,

Brendochka

Viktor Orban is now in the business of predicting the future.

I have written much about Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, of late (see particularly, “The Return of the Habsburgs” – 7/26/24). He has been busily assembling a group of like-minded European leaders — all fellow members of the EU, and all but Austria also NATO members — in an alliance he calls “Patriots for Europe.” Briefly, he appears to be reestablishing the Habsburg Empire, in a 21st Century version.

And it is most significant that Orban and his colleagues — including Robert Fico, Prime Minister of Slovakia — are avowed admirers of Vladimir Putin, to whom Orban has been trying to sell himself as the guy who can settle the “conflict” (i.e., the war) in Ukraine.

Now he is stepping forward to reinvent himself once again, this time as the all-seeing prognosticator whose visions of the future world — the one to which we are now allegedly headed — will create an alternative path, one that will prevent a universal disaster and build a more “hyperrational” world.

A world with Asia and Russia as its core.

What does he foresee? Well, for openers:

He predicts that Ukraine will never be able to become a member of NATO or the EU.

In a speech before ethnic Hungarians in neighboring Romania, he predicts that, “In the next long decades, maybe centuries, Asia will be the dominant centre of the world,” specifically naming China, India, Pakistan and Indonesia as the world’s future great powers. [Reuters, July 27, 2024.]

(Sorry, Viktor, but Nostradamus — the real one — beat you to that prediction centuries ago.)

And then he switches from forecasting to the blame game:

“And we Westerners pushed the Russians into this bloc as well.” He declared that the West was “weak,” and that Russia’s position in world affairs was “rational and predictable.” He praised Russia for its ability to adapt to Western sanctions, and then inexplicably added:

“The strongest international appeal of Russian soft power is its opposition to LGBTQ.” [Reuters, id.]

Well, that’s setting us straight . . . so to speak.

*. *. *

When I said previously that Orban’s voice was one not to be ignored, I now believe I was seriously understating the case.

Just sayin’ . . .

Brendochka
7/30/24